Indian stocks subdued on Monday; eyes on May inflation data

Indian stock indices started the new week on a steady note with investors largely eyeing May inflation data scheduled to be released this week for further course of action. Benchmark Sensex and Nifty were trading just 13 points and 3 points higher from their previous closing, respectively. Retail inflation for May will be released at 5.30 pm today.

Retail inflation or (Consumer Price Index) in India peaked at 7.8 per cent in April 2022 to an 18-month low of 4.7 per cent in April 2023, driven by a reduction in food and core inflation. In some advanced countries, inflation had in fact touched a multi-decade high and even breached the 10 per cent mark. RBI's consistent monetary policy tightening since mid-2022 could be attributed to the substantial decline in inflation numbers in India.

"For a long time, Indian markets (Nifty) have been consolidating in the 18,475-18,800 zones. The entire week is packed with events, including the release of Consumer Price Index inflation figures in India as well as the Industrial Index of Industrial Production statistics. Global attention will be focused on the Federal Reserve's meeting, where a rate hike or pause will be closely monitored," said Deven Mehata, Equity Research Analyst, at Choice Broking. Overall Indian stocks have been buoyant over the past fortnight or so due to the continued inflow of foreign investments, relatively lower crude oil prices, more than estimated GDP numbers, and a consistent decline in inflation.

Foreign investors have remained net buyers in Indian stock markets for the fourth straight month now, data from the National Securities Depository (NSDL) revealed. They bought Indian stocks worth Rs 7,936 crore, Rs 11,631 crore, and Rs 43,838 in March, April, and May, respectively. So far in June, they have already bought assets worth Rs 9,788 crore. "In May, globally, FPIs were big buyers in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India and big sellers in China. This trend continues in June also," said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

"Sustained buying by FPIs has lifted the Nifty by around 10 per cent from the March lows and consequently, valuations, viewed from the short-term perspective, have become challenging. Therefore, FPI is likely to slow down in the coming days. They are likely to continue buying in financials and autos since the prospects of these sectors look promising," added Vijayakumar. All eyes are now on the US Fed policy outcome for cues, scheduled on June 14.

The US monetary policy committee, seeking to achieve inflation at 2 per cent over the longer run, hiked the key interest rate by another 25 basis points to 5.0-5.25 per cent. The latest hike in May was the same size as its previous rate increase in the March meeting and marked the tenth straight rate hike.

"We feel the prevailing outperformance may continue in the broader indices so continue to add quality stocks from midcap and smallcap space," said Ajit Mishra, SVP - Technical Research, Religare Broking.