Collision of ‘2 ships’ and the crisis after

While the purging process on beaches took a little over 10 days after the first collision, the second incident, the collision of AIADMK heavy weights, Chief Minister O Panneerselvam and Sasikala, too appears to take a similar duration for a ‘clean picture’ to emerge. Interestingly or sadly, in both the incidents the victim was the same group – the common man. 

Another similarity is the cleansing process is that the port authorities and officials, who should have acted instantly and efficiently to handle the problem in the sea lacked the right strategy and similar was the case with the senior leaders – executive committee – of the AIADMK. Again like the Coast Guard, marine activists, NGOs joining the drive to cleanse the beaches, in the case of the crisis-ridden government also social media voices, Kollywood celebrities, rival parties and so many others were out with their views to end the impasse. 

Finally, like the port authorities and officials looking at the technology destinations in overseas for a quick-fix solution, the rival AIADMK camps and the people pinned hopes on the external and neutral power – the Governor. 

However, in both the cases there was no word of assurance or immediate formula to close the crisis. This opened the doors for speculations sparking a series of questions setting off debates about the political and constitutional crises that will occur in the course. And, the talk was all around what the stand will the Governor and the strong and big-numbered Assembly opposition party - DMK - take?

While there will be a number of Constitutional clauses that have to be considered by the Governor before taking a decision, the DMK may not have it to the same level except thinking about the present situation and its future position in the political arena.

In this backdrop, already the Sasikala camp has been using the OPS-DMK nexus weapon to keep its loyalist intact and to save its image. “Yes, this campaign of the Poes Garden team will put DMK in a piquant situation when it comes to voting in the floor test. If they side with the OPS camp, Stalin’s team will get clearly exposed and the claim of Sasikala’s side will be proved that the DMK only orchestrated the whole split in the AIADMK. At the same time, despite all these issues if they bail out OPS from the present crisis, it will be the same Chief Minister who will be their rival during the next Assembly election in 2021,” says Ravi, political analyst.

Presuming that the court verdict in assets case coming out in favour or Sasikala, still the governor may or may not invite her to form the government using his special discretionary powers, is the divided opinion in legal circles.

In such a situation, the Sasikala camp may not relent and choose another person to face the floor test and form the government. “But, in that situation the fight will be intense in the Assembly and both the sides may fail to display the required strength. So, if such a situation arises, the Governor may look at two ways – Article 355, keeping the Assembly in suspended animation or President’s rule. This means that the state should get ready for a fresh round of Assembly election,” feels Subramanian Ganesan, a cost accountant and political observer. 

“If that happens, OPS will continue his anti-Sasikala tune and the problems he and other experienced from the Manargudi family members, thus trying to keep the sympathy wave of the public on his side and use it to win votes to come back to power,” he adds. 

Considering all these factors, the DMK may not rush to any decision with regard to supporting the OPS camp. Similarly, the Governor will not try to find a quick-fix solution and wait till the court order in assets case come out. 

So, the formula to cleanse the ‘political slick’ in the state after the collision of two AIADMK ships lies with the Governor and the DMK.

However, as mentioned earlier, in both the cases the sufferers are none else than the voter.