Stalin should take measured steps and lead the party back to power

Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam’s working president MK Stalin’s long wait for the crown, be it party leadership or Fort St George, is coming to an end. The party leadership is for the asking since the passing of his father and president and five-time Chief Minister M Karunanidhi. He has to wait a little longer to take the party to power. 

Now that the Election Commission has shot down the BJP Government’s proposal for simultaneous elections to State Assemblies along with the Lok Sabha polls, due May next year, and the fate of the Edappadi K Palaniswami Government depends on the verdict of the Madras High Court on the disqualification of 18 supporters of AIADMK rebel TTV Dhinakaran, both the elections may come sooner than expected. It will be a crown of thorns either way for Stalin. 

Taking over the mantle from Karunanidhi, who had made DMK a regional party with a national reach, thanks to contacts he had built over 80 years of public life, is a challenge. Leading the party to power in the State after a gap of seven years may be easy. But giving good governance will be another challenge No doubt, Karunanidhi had groomed Stalin well in running the party as well as the government. 

Nevertheless, Stalin has been rooted in the state and has no exposure to national politics like Murosoli Maran and his son Dayanidhi. The executive, the highest policymaking body, which met after the passing of Karunanidhi, has confined itself to adopting a condolence resolution and deferred to the General Council the election of a new president and consequential changes in the party, as Stalin is yet to come to terms with  the loss. 

The party is solidly behind Stalin. It has always been. It is more so in his hour of grief. As such, the noises made by his estranged elder brother MK Alagiri that true followers of Karunaidhi are behind him will have no impact. 

With Jayalalithaaa and Karunanidhi passing into history, the AIADMK in disarray and the BJP in search of a popular face like Rajinikanth to make up for its want of a mass base, surveys have shown that it will be a one-horse race for Stalin whenever elections are held. Having grown under the protective wing of Karunanidhi, Stalin was able to weather challengers like Alagiri and at one time, Marumalarchi DMK leader Vaiko. He has also proved he is an able administrator in the DMK Ministry because Karunanidhi kept two of the best IAS officers at his disposal. 

Stalin on his own proved his mettle as Chennai Mayor twice. But his track record as a winner of elections has been not all that rosy. The 2001 State Assembly elections will suffice as an exacmple. Karunanidhi let Stalin cobble together an alliance. Stalin spurned time-tested Marumalarchi DMK of Vaiko and the Pattali Makkal Katchi of Dr S Ramadoss and instead went for untested caste outfits along with the BJP, and the splinter groups of the AIADMK led by RM Veerappan, R Kannappan and S Thirunavakkarasar. 

The result, Jayalalithaa-led AIADMK alliance swept the polls, winning 196 against DMK’s tally of 37. Jayalalithaaa’s return to power after the 1996 rout was mainly because of her alliance with the Congress, the Tamil Manila Congress, the PMK and the two communist parties. Congress and the TMC crossed over to the AIADMK after DMK aligned with the BJP. 

Stalin cannot be blamed for that. Karunanidhi did bounce back in 2006, only to lose again in 2011. Stalin cannot be blamed for the DMK’s rout in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections either as Jayalalithaaa made it a ‘Lady Vs Modi’ fight and won 37 out of 39 seats, all transferred votes of silent BJP supporters who hoped she would prop up Modi in case he failed to get a majority on his own. 

As it happened, he got a majority on his own. Stalin’s mass contact programme, ahead of the 2016 Assembly elections, helped him reach neutral voters. It paid rich dividends and the DMK got 89 seats, ally Congress seven and the All India Muslim League one. Stalin might have won but for Karunanidhi’s announcement that if the DMK was voted to power, he would be the Chief Minister. People preferred to give Jayalalithaaa a second term to suffering another spell of family rule of Karunanidhi.  In the post-Jayalalithaaa phase, which saw Edappaddi K Palaniswami upstaging O Pannerselvam and grabbing power with the support of 124 MLAs loyal to Sasikala, Stalin came out as a man in a hurry by creating a ruckus at the February 2017 trust vote. 

His penchant for theatrics came to the fore when he emerged from the Assembly with torn shirts, an unedifying spectacle for a man holding the post of Leader of the Opposition. Stalin also blundered in putting a weak candidate in the RK Nagar byelection in the hope that if Dhinakaran won, he would topple the government. The fact that DMK lost even the deposit showed Stalin’s flawed strategy. 

On the positive side is the DMK moving the Madras High Court for a direction to the Speaker to order a trust vote after the disqualification of 18 MLAs loyal to Dhinakaran. The protracted court battle has led to a split verdict and the issue is before a third judge whose verdict is expected soon.  Foreseeing that in the coming elections, be it to the State or to the Lok Sabha, his main challenger will be Modi, Stalin has already firmed up the alliance with the Congress and the IUML and included the two left parties and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal. 

The MDMK is also moving close to the secular front which is set to take on the BJP-AIADMKRajini combine. Whenever Stalin faltered, Karunanidhi was there to steady him. In his absence, Stalin will have to take measured steps. If he does, he can lead the DMK back to power. As he said at the DMK executive, that will be a fitting tribute to Karunanidhi.