Local body election, a litmus test for TN in fluid political times

The Madras High Court has directed the Tamil Nadu (TN) State Election Commission to conduct the election to the local body before November 17.

Since 1996, the elections have been conducted by the State Election Commission established for this purpose by the 73rd and 74th Amendments to the Constitution.

Elections were conducted in 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011. Usually, the local body’s election would follow the assembly election and the party which captured the power in the former would repeat its victory in the latter. This has been the pattern in TN since 1996.

This is going to be a real litmus test for the political parties in Tamil Nadu. Voters who reversed the anti-incumbency factor in favour of AIADMK in 2016 are eagerly waiting to see whether the party in power will also control the local body or not. The opposition DMK, which has been a runner up every time it has not been in power since 1996, would be waiting to wrest the local body from the AIADMK members, whose term ended in 2016.

Changing dynamics

The political scenario has completely changed in the last one year since the death of the former Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa. The AIADMK itself is a divided house, with TTV Dinakaran claiming the support of some MLAs. Other parties forming a coalition to meet the challenges of the AIADMK and DMK in the elections as a third front, is another possibility, because of the past experience of five-parties coming together to form the People’s Welfare Front (PWF). Born out of the frustration of smaller parties who always lend their support to form governments (to DMK or AIADMK), such fronts have never formed the government.

A third front for the local body election by smaller parties cannot be ruled out. The PMK which contested the election on its own, will certainly either be looking for a partner or an alliance or go it alone again to gauge the exact support base for the party. The BJP which also contested on its own in the 2016 election to the state assembly, may consider an alliance partner. With the merger of Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) and O Panneerselvam (OPS)

factions, the AIADMK will face the electorate which elected them for a record second time in succession for its brand approval (when Jayalalithaa was alive). The outcome in many respects will show the support-base for political parties.

The results may even pave the way for mid-term elections in the state.

Election to local body should be given a top priority by the government. The Panchayati Raj Institutions (PRI) have strengthened the federal system and thereby, democracy. In the place of Union, State and concurrent list now with the PRI, a new list of 29 subjects to the rural local bodies are included in the 11th schedule of the Constitution. Reservation of seats for SC’s ST’s and women are outstanding features of the PRI.

These Institutions have changed the representative democracy into people’s democracy.

TN behind Bihar

Tamil Nadu has a history of decentralised administration from the ancient times; now we lag behind because some of the States in India like Bihar, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh have introduced 50 per cent reservation for women in PRI.

(110th amendment Bill to the Constitution).

The local body elections scheduled for November 2017 will also be a referendum for the issues that TN has been facing in the last one year, such as Cauvery, Neduvassal, farmers’ suicides, jallikattu and the National Eligibility cum Entrance Test (NEET). People are going to respond to these issues through their votes in the local body election.