Jefferies reiterates buy on RIL with target of Rs 2,950

RIL under-performed Nifty by 5 per cent in CY21. We forecast 23 per cent EPS CAGR for RIL, ahead of the Nifty Consensus EPS CAGR of 16 per cent over FY22-24E, the report said.

While Reliance Retail (RR) continued to scale up in the last two years, its growth trajectory was impacted by Covid-19 disruption.

Rising Covid cases continue to cloud near-term outlook, but we expect a strong pick-up in FY23 for retailers, including RR with low base also helping. Store additions should pick up along with efforts on new commerce, particularly under JioMart.

Jeffreries said it expects Reliance Jio to see an acceleration in revenue growth in FY23 driven by recent tariff hikes in the mobile segment and ongoing scale-up of non-mobile businesses. 

This should help Jio deliver 35 per cent YoY growth in EBITDA and doubling of FCF. 2022 will be crucial for Jio's transition into a digital services company. In our view, its potential IPO/valuations in future will strongly hinge on its ability to make this transition successfully. 

Besides this, market share shifts post the tariff hikes and potential spectrum auctions would be key things to watch in 2022.

Phase-1 capex in solar equipment and energy storage system (ESS) giga-factories should gather traction in CY22, the report said. RIL has FBR tech for poly-si and PERC and HJT tech for modules from its REC Group acquisition. It has access to liquid metal battery tech from Ambri and Sodium-ion battery tech from Faradion. 

We expect RIL to acquire tech for H2 electrolysers and fuel cells during the course of the year and initiate Phase 1 capex in these areas.

RIL's petrochemical volume, tracking 7 per cent below pre-Covid levels, should recover and support earnings in our view, the report said.