GDP growth projected to spike to four-quarter high 13.0%: ICRA

MUMBAI: GDP growth is expected to expand in double digits at 13 per cent in Q1FY23 due to low base and robust recovery in the contact-intensive sectors following the widening vaccination coverage, according to an ICRA report.

The gross value added (GVA) at basic price in Q1FY23 is projected at 12.6 per cent from 3.9 per cent earlier.

ICRA expects the sectoral growth in Q1 FY2023 to be driven by the services sector (+17-19 per cent; +5.5 per cent in Q4 FY2022), followed by the industry (+9-11 per cent; +1.3 per cent).

However, the GVA growth in agriculture, forestry and fishing is projected to decline to 1.0 per cent in Q1 FY2023 from 4.1 per cent in Q4 FY2022, on account of the adverse impact of the heat wave in several parts of the country, which supressed wheat output.

"The anticipated double-digit GDP expansion in Q1 FY2023 benefits from the low base of the second wave of Covid-19 in India in Q1 FY2022 as well as the robust recovery in the contact-intensive sectors following the widening vaccination coverage. In ICRA's assessment, there has been a shift in demand towards contact-intensive services from discretionary consumer goods for the mid-to-higher income groups. This, in conjunction with the emerging cautiousness in export demand, and the impact of high commodity prices on volumes as well as margins for the industrial sector, are likely to result in a relatively moderate industrial growth," Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA was quoted saying in a release.

The recovery in travel-related services has been upbeat since the onset of FY2023, benefiting from pent-up demand related to corporate travel and increasing confidence for availing leisure services amid the decline in trajectory of Covid-19 infections.

Moreover, within transportation, the railway and road sub-sectors are expected to post a healthy recovery in Q1 FY2023, as indicated by the healthy YoY growth in rail freight and GST e-way bills.

Overall, ICRA expects the growth in GVA of trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting (THTCS) to record a base-effect driven expansion of 40-45 per cent in Q1 FY2023 (+5.3 per cent in Q4 FY2022), while trailing the pre-Covid level of Q1 FY2020 by a muted 2.5 per cent.