Scientists work on models to predict thunderstorms

As part of the project, a lightning network was set up as the first step to provide the forecast which was fully-implemented in Maharashtra.  “Now we are providing forecast 30 minutes before thunderstorms. We are working to give the forecast about 12 hours ahead,” said Rao, speaking on the sidelines of an event to commemorate the World Meteorological Day at the Regional Meteorological Center in Chennai on Friday.

Weather prediction has come a long way since the inception of mission in 2004, he said, admitting that there were a few exceptions, including failure to predict the northeast monsoon last year. “Before the mission, we never had an extended forecast range. Now, we are confident that our forecasts of average rainfall for five days are accurate. We are working to increase the accuracy rate up to 15 days,” he said.  

In phase II (2017-2020), the mission has been mandated to transmit available weather information to the public, including farmers. Under this, the crucial information about rainfall and other characteristics would be provided two-three days ahead. Based on that, farmers would receive advisories about usage of fertiliser and pesticides. It can also enhance the efficiency of reservoir management, wind power, etc.

“The immediate challenge we need to tackle is in regard with prediction of extreme weather events. The monsoon is still predictable in the backdrop of climate change. We are striving to improve our predictions,” he said.