Why 16th Prez poll looks like a cakewalk for BJP despite Oppn efforts

Even as the ruling NDA as well as the opposition parties are yet to come to a consensus on their respective presidential candidates, there is not much time to continue haggling as the term of President Ram Nath Kovind ends on July 24, 2022. Unlike the recent past when presidential elections have largely been low-key affairs considering the sheer constitutionality of the post, the run-up to the 16th presidential election has gathered pace, thanks to a spirited opposition led by TMC chief Mamata Banerjee and other regional parties who are desperate to make a dent in the BJP’s confidence ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections by forging a united front and putting up a strong candidate. The BJP, as usual, has been tight-lipped about its candidate and can be expected to churn out a surprise nomination at the last minute. With the last day to file nominations for electing the 16th President of India just a little more than a week away on June 29, 2022, the Presidential poll will take place on July 18 and the counting of votes would be held three days later.

How does a Presidential Election take place?

Unlike the Parliament and state Assembly elections, the elections to the office of the President of India are trickier affairs. According to Article 54 of the Constitution of India, the President is elected by members of the Electoral College consisting of a) elected members of both houses of Parliament and (b) elected members of Legislative Assemblies of all States, including the National capital Territory of Delhi and Puducherry UT. Nominated members of both houses of Parliament and Legislative assemblies are not eligible for electing the President of India.

According to the Election Commission of India, the total value of votes for MLAs for the 16th Presidential election is 5,43,231 while the total value of votes for MPs is 5,43,200 taking the total value of the vote of electors to 10,86,431. Any candidate who gets more than 50% of the value of votes becomes the next President of India. The polling would be conducted through a secret ballot and each elector can cast just one vote, the value of which is predetermined.

Any candidate who gets more than 50% of the value of votes becomes the next President of India.

The value of a vote for each Member of Parliament is 700 and is uniform across the country. But, the value of a vote of each MLA varies according to the population of the State. For instance, the value of a vote of each MLA from UP is 208 while the value of each MLA vote from Sikkim is just 7.

The value of a vote of each member of State Assemblies is worked out by multiplying the number of elective seats in the Assembly by the number of votes for each member. The total value of all the States added together is divided by the total number of elected members of the Parliament to get the value of votes for each MP. Also, the population figures from the 1971 census are used for calculating vote values.

For instance, Andhra Pradesh had a population of 2,78,00,586 and the total number of legislative seats is 175. Thus, the value of each vote in AP is 2,78,00,586/175*1000 = 158.86 rounded up to 159. Thus, the value of each MLA’s vote in AP is 159. The total value of votes from the state: 159 * 175 = 27,825

Similarly, for TN it is calculated as follows:

Total TN population according to 1971 census = 4,11,99,168

Total legislative seats = 234

Value of each vote = 4,11,99,168/234*1000 = 176.06 rounded as 176

Thus, total electoral votes from TN = 176 * 234 = 41,184

The value of each MP Vote is arrived as follows:

The total value of votes for all states, according to ECI is 5,43,231

Total number of parliamentarians in India = 543 (Lok Sabha) + 233 (Rajya Sabha) = 776

Thus, the value of each MP vote is calculated as 5,43,231/776 = 700

Going by this formula adopted by the ECI for Presidential elections, some of the states that hold large values of votes are Uttar Pradesh with a total vote value of 83,824, Maharashtra with 50,400 and West Bengal with 44,394 which can play a crucial role in the election of the President in the event of a close fight.

The scenario for the 2022 Presidential polls

In the present situation, the 16th Presidential poll seems to be tilting heavily in favour of the ruling NDA candidate (assuming all MLAs and MPs representing a party vote likewise) with BJP alone having 301 MPs in Lok Sabha, 95 MPs in Rajya Sabha besides 255 of the 403 MLA seats in UP, 106 MLAs of their own in Maharashtra is sitting in a strong position with anywhere between 48 to 49% of the 10,86,481 votes already in its kitty with its MPs alone contributing a whopping 2,77,200 votes with the regional MLAs making up the rest. With the Congress party yet to align with the rest of the Opposition nor name its candidate, Mamta Banerjee and her associates have to put up a strong, glued front to outsmart the BJP and its allies in the 16th Presidential polls, as things stand right now. The only element of surprise, in all practicality, would be to see who the BJP’s Presidential candidate is going to be.

Past Presidential Polls in India

Despite the President of India being a constitutional head who only acts on the advice of the Prime Minister and his elected cabinet, the elections for the same have witnessed spirited participation since the first Presidential poll held in 1952 when Dr Rajendra Prasad was elected President of India after netting 5,07,400 of the 6,05,866 presidential votes. His closest rival was K T Shah with 92,827 votes. Back then, the total number of electors was 4,056 and each MP vote had a value of just 494. In the 1957 Presidential poll, Dr Prasad was again elected almost unanimously, getting 4,59,698 of the 4,63,196 presidential votes.

Since those days, Presidential elections have always been largely a one-sided affair with no nail-biting finishes to recall from the past. In the 15th Presidential election, President Ram Nath Kovind secured 7,02,044 votes while his rival Miera Kumar got just 3,67,314 votes. In the previous presidential poll held during the UPA regime, Veteran Congress leader Pranab Mukherjee got 7,13,763 votes against his rival P A Sangma who got just 3,15,987 votes.

While most presidential polls have gone this way, there are certain total anomalies. For example, in the 7th Presidential election held in the year 1977, a total of 37 candidates had filed their nominations but the ECI, upon scrutiny, had to reject all but one nomination belonging to Neelam Sanjeeva Reddy, who was declared President without an election. Another unusual presidential poll had been held to elect the 4th President of India in the year 1967 when the ECI got a whopping 17 nominations for the post of President after legal scrutiny. While Dr Zakir Hussain was elected President of India that year with 4,71,244 of the total 8,38,048 votes, at least nine candidates received zero votes after which amendments were made to the laws to wean away non-serious candidates from contesting for the top post in India.

(all data sourced from Election Commission of India)