Presidential poll: After Lula’s win, Brazil needs reconciliation

In a stunning political resurrection, Lula da Silva’s broad alliance has defeated the far-right. Now, Brazilians need to regain the ability to disagree without violence and reach common ground.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva from the leftist Workers Party (PT) returns to the presidency of Brazil 20 years after being elected for the first time. The result of Sunday’s election is loaded with historical milestones and symbolism.

Lula becomes the first president in Brazilian history to be democratically elected for a third term. Jair Bolsonaro will be the first president since re-democratisation in the 1980s not to be re-elected. Lula’s victory also consolidates the new shift to the left in Latin America, after swings in Mexico, Argentina, Bolivia, Peru, Honduras, Chile and Colombia.

The victory also marks an unimaginable political resurrection for Lula, who spent 580 days in prison after being convicted of corruption in 2018. Three years later, the Supreme Court overturned Lula’s convictions due to procedural errors and by understanding that former judge and now senator Sergio Moro, an ally of Bolsonaro, acted with political motivation.

Rivals become allies

Barred from running for president in 2018, Lula came back with renewed strength in the 2022 election and rallied around himself the support of politicians, businessmen, and intellectuals from almost the entire political spectrum. He reached out to the center-right by joining forces with former rival Geraldo Alckmin, former governor of Sao Paulo, as his running mate. Historical opponents and important figures in Brazilian politics who had always detested Lula declared their support for him. They saw him as the best option in the face of Bolsonaro, who led a disastrous government and dedicated himself tirelessly to attacking democratic institutions.

The election result is a victory for this broad democratic alliance. It cannot be denied, however, that once again the president of Brazil was chosen in a duel of rejections. The rejection of Bolsonaro was greater, but this does not mean that it will be easy for Lula to govern. Bolsonaro’s allies have won a significant number of seats in Congress and make up a strong opposition. That’s not an ideal start for a government tasked with helping more than 30 million people threatened by hunger, boosting economic growth, strengthening environmental protection, and fixing the country’s international reputation. The challenge to Lula’s known ability to forge alliances has never been greater.

Suspense about the transition

The very first step will already be difficult: Bolsonaro has to accept defeat and hand over power to Lula on January 1, 2023. Bolsonaro has threatened several times not to accept the election result if he does not consider it “clean.” Lula’s presidential term could begin tumultuously with a battle in court and on the streets, like the one that took place after the 2014 presidential election, when Brazil entered a crisis that continues to this day. The transition is also likely to be difficult. More than 57 million voters sanctioned Bolsonaro’s far-right agenda, and much of them have proven susceptible to the outgoing president’s propaganda machine. Mobilisation within ideological bubbles on social media will set the tone for upcoming events, and will confirm or dismiss fears of a democratic rupture.

The toxic post-election climate will again delay what’s actually most important for the country: reconciliation. To evolve as a democracy, Brazilians need to recover the ability to disagree without violence and reach for common ground – there is plenty of it. The extreme right-wing ideas that in recent years have pushed into the mainstream need to go back into the hole they crawled out of.