Editorial: China’s Covid cascade

There is yet another spike in Covid-19 cases in China, which the world is following feverishly. The numbers by themselves are alarming: Chinese Public health officials say more than 80 crore people could be affected by the virus this time around in the next three months – in other words, more than 10 per cent of the world’s population.

But experts worry not just about the massive numbers, but also about the rapid surge. Epidemiologists use ‘reproductive value’ or R-value to denote the transmissibility of a virus. In simple terms, it calculates how many people would catch the infection from one person carrying the pathogen.

For instance, during the sharp spike that India reported in the third wave, the R-value was estimated to be 3 (one person infects three others who come in contact with her/him), while it was around 10 in the US during the Omicron-triggered wave. In the case of China this time, the R-value is estimated at 16.

That spread is so swift that no country would be able to withstand the wave without facing serious repercussions. It would mean a shortage of hospital beds, medicine, equipment, and most importantly, manpower. If that happens, the fatality rate would climb equally fast – some experts are putting the numbers at half a million or more.

As startling as these numbers are, they don’t convey the full picture of what it could mean for other countries, including India. Because, despite seemingly developing immunity after catching the infection and getting multiple doses of the vaccine, the situation in China has the potential to impact the rest of the world in more ways than just direct health concerns.

Among the first areas to be affected could be the pharmacy sector where the manufacturers are dependent on China for the supply of active pharmaceutical ingredients or API, the most important raw material for the production of medicines.

Facing a serious threat, China is expected to divert much of its output to the domestic market from exports, which would lead to a crippling shortage worldwide. One may recall the situation during the initial days of the pandemic when a similar shortfall sent governments across the globe into panic mode.

Several sectors in almost all countries are likely to be affected, as they all are dependent on raw materials, and semi-processed and finished goods churned out by factories in China. Other low-cost manufacturing units do exist in countries including Taiwan, but they would not be able to fill the void if Chinese units fail to fire on all cylinders.

Coming at a time when the world is battling crises such as high prices of oil and other commodities, and a hike in Fed rates among others, such a disruption in the supply chain is sure to batter the economies of countries and families in more ways than one.

To the world powers that are suspicious of China, there are two choices at this juncture: either set aside their differences by supporting the country in its time of need or push for reforms to make the government more democratic if not to bring in a regime change itself.

To many countries and their leaders who share a testy relationship with China, especially in the recent past under President and Chinese Communist Party supremo Xi Jinping, the crisis that is unfolding in the country may appear to be an opportunity to bring about a change.

However, as lofty and worthy as the purported goal is, it must be thought through – as forcing Chinese authorities to change is a possibility only in theory, whereas the cascading effect of the impending crisis on the world’s economy is a certainty.