Nigeria’s election: What is at stake?

Isaac Mugabi

President Muhammadu Buhari is not on the ballot this time, as he will complete the two terms he is constitutionally allowed to serve in May. The electorate will choose a new president to address the many issues Nigerians are trying to overcome. Furthermore, voters will also choose new senators and members for the House of Representatives in this election, which could potentially result in a complete shake-up. On March 11, governorship races will follow.

Here’s what else you need to know about this election:

A total of 18 candidates are vying for the presidency. Some polls suggest that the main contest is between Bola Tinubu from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party’s Peter Obi, who even is leading in some polls.

However, a lack of reliable polling makes it difficult to make any reliable predictions. The only thing that is certain is the fact that the ruling party has a major advantage: It is able to use the state apparatus to mobilize support. Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar have significant power bases across Nigeria, while Peter Obi appears to be banking on the growing frustration over the economy and insecurity in the country in hopes of turning voters against the two major parties. Nigeria, which is Africa’s top oil producer, is a key Western ally in the fight against Islamist insurgents in West Africa. The top issue for many Nigerian voters, however, is the overall threat of spreading insecurity in the country. From kidnappings for ransom in the northwest to a 13-year Islamist insurgency in the northeast, separatist violence in the southeast, and decades-old ethnic tensions mostly between herders and farmers in the north-central region, Nigeria is rife with instability.

Additionally, inflation has reached its highest in nearly two decades, hitting double-digit figures, and many Nigerians say that life is harder now than when Buhari took office in 2015. The naira currency has plunged to record lows as unprecedented oil theft knocked crude exports last year; all the while, corruption also remains at endemic levels. As the economy suffers, hundreds of Nigerians have decided to leave the country in a punishing brain drain which is stretching a weak healthcare system and disrupting services from banking to tech.

There are no clear ideological differences between the two major parties. In fact, rather than ideology, there are other factors at play: competition for dwindling oil revenues, patronage, and ethnic rivalries typically take on bigger roles in Nigeria’s elections. Obi, who left the PDP last year and was Abubakar’s running mate in 2019, has cast himself as a reformist willing to overhaul Nigeria’s political system. But on policy, there is little difference between the main candidates.

Tinubu, Abubakar, and Obi have all made the revival of the economy and the ending of insecurity top priorities, promising better pay for security forces and more military equipment to defeat insurgents.

Their manifestos say they would scrap a fuel subsidy that cost $10 billion last year. However, they differ on how quickly they plan to do this.

They have all promised to reform the foreign exchange market and to invest more in education. Some 93.4 million people have registered to vote, of whom three-quarters are between the ages of 18 and 49. However, the challenge for the parties will be to actually get the votes: Many younger Nigerians say they do not relate to the two major-party candidates, who are both septuagenarian political veterans.