What to expect from Iran-Saudi Arabia ties

For many observers of the region, the announcement came as a surprise. After years of rivalry and tensions, Saudi Arabia and Iran apparently want to start a new phase in their relationship. The decision is one that could have both regional and international impacts because in many areas and on many fronts, the two nations are opponents and have squared off against one another, both indirectly and directly. The two countries have supported opposing parties to various conflicts: for example, in Syria during the civil war there, and to this day in the war in Yemen. In Iraq, Lebanon and Bahrain, they have become involved in local politics on opposing sides. According to the Saudi leadership, Iran is responsible for some of the rocket attacks on its oil facilities in the Persian Gulf.

Yet now Saudi Arabia and Iran say they want to open a new chapter on their relationship. There are good reasons for both to do so. In their attacks on one another, they are hurting themselves more than their foe — and in both political and economic terms. Additionally, neither side has been able to gain any real supremacy over the other.

This realization is not something new. Two years ago, representatives from Saudi Arabia and Iran were already negotiating behind closed doors, recalled Sebastian Sons, a senior researcher and Saudi Arabia expert at the Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient (CARPO), a German think tank. At the same time, it’s still true that the Saudis don’t trust the Iranians, he said. “But that is exactly why the Saudi leadership is being forced to come to an arrangement with Iran,” he explained. “An agreement is of the highest priority for the [Saudi] kingdom.”

Tehran apparently sees things similarly. The new deal is a diplomatic success for the Iranians, said Marcus Schneider, who heads the Friedrich Ebert Foundation’s Regional Peace and Security Project in Beirut. “For the [Iranian] regime, it’s a step out of international isolation at a time when its relations with the West are worsening, going from one low point to the next,” Schneider told DW.

The increasing international isolation has certainly made a difference to Iran’s attitude. Given this, another factor to Iran’s liking is that the Chinese apparently helped to broker this new detente. China’s relationship with Western nations has also been deteriorating lately. Brokering this new relationship establishes China as a power to be reckoned with in the Middle East, Schneider told DW. “It also serves Tehran’s interests in that it drives the Americans out of the region, or at least reduces their influence,” the Beirut-based expert continued.

Chinese relations with Iran have been good for some time now. In early 2021, both sides signed a trade deal that would see China invest around $400 billion (372 billion euros) there over the next 25 years. Meanwhile, the Saudis have been hedging their bets and turning away from their traditional ally, the US, for the past few years. American leaders have been critical of the Saudis’ human rights record and were perceived as not being supportive enough when oil facilities were attacked, allegedly by Yemeni rebels firing Iranian-made rockets.

Saudi Arabia has demonstrated that it won’t necessarily do the US’ bidding. For example, last September, at a meeting of oil producing nations in the OPEC+ group, the Saudis chose not to do as the US had asked and did not lobby to increase production to bring down oil prices. That doesn’t indicate that the Saudis are planning a complete change of course or breaking away from Western partners altogether, Sons noted: “But you have to see that rapprochement with Iran is a very high priority in Riyadh.”