Fuel fraternity: Will Turkey become a Russian gas hub?

By Seda Sezer Bilen

WASHINGTON: Russia was the world’s largest gas exporter until February 24, when Moscow invaded Ukraine, shaking global energy markets and forcing Europe to end its dependence on Russian fossil fuels.

Europe imposed sanctions on Russia, which Turkey has refused to apply. Since the war began,Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has sought to play a mediating role in the conflict, supplying weapons to Kyiv while maintaining close relations with President Vladimir Putin.

In response, Putin proposed in October to make Turkey a hub for Russian gas deliveries as an alternative supply route to Europe — a plan backed by Erdogan. But what Putin has in mind is not clear, so far.

Both presidents are going through difficult times. After 20 years in power, Erdogan faces the toughest challenge of his political life in the upcoming elections on May 14.

Erdogan’s re-election bid was already proving to be arduous amid record-high inflation and an economic slowdown.

A devastating earthquake that hit Turkey in February, killing almost 50,000 people, has only made it harder for the Turkish leader.

The quake caused damage worth more than $103 billion (96.11 bn euros), or approximately 9% of the country’s expected national income this year.

Putin has his own set of challenges at hand, including the war in Ukraine and tough economic sanctions hitting the Russian economy.

“Putin is dangling for Turkey the ‘carrot’ of becoming a gas hub to bring Turkey closer to Moscow’s orbit — similarly to what Putin had tried to do with Germany and Nord Stream,” said energy expert Agnia Grigas, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a US think tank.

“Putin has traditionally used personal relationships, natural gas deals and arguably corruption to establish closer diplomatic relations with European and Eurasian countries, so Turkey is no exception,” she told DW.

Despite promising rhetoric by the leaders of both countries, there are technical concerns about the plan for Turkey to become a Russian gas hub.

“The idea behind Putin’s statements seems to send more Russian pipeline gas to Turkey, and that gas could then be re-exported to Europe,” Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a global research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, told DW.

“The issue is that there is not enough pipeline capacity to do that,” she added. Two active natural gas pipeline systems carry gas from Russia to Turkey. The biggest of these, TurkStream is designed to carry 31.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year and supplies gas to both Europe and Turkey via two pipelines.

The second pipeline system, BlueStream, has an annual capacity of 16 bcm and covers Turkey’s domestic gas demand. Both systems are currently heavily congested and adding one or more pipelines will take years, energy analysts say.

Russian gas is currently exempt from sanctions because so many European nations are reliant on it. However, EU states have been desperately seeking to reduce this dependency. So if Turkey becomes an energy hub that includes Russian gas, Western leaders are concerned Europe could end up importing the very Russian gas it is trying to move away from.

Considering Erdogan’s well-known long-standing goal of making Turkey one of the world’s leading energy trading centers, could Turkey and Russia pull this off?

“Despite the TurkStream pipeline project, Turkey does not have the potential to become a gas hub for Europe as the EU countries and Russia’s near abroad countries are seeking diversification away from Russian energy sources,” said energy expert Grigas.