Show of power: How wary should we be of China’s war games?

WASHINGTON: For the second time in less than a year, China has launched a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan.

In a clear display of military might, dozens of Chinese military aircraft flew across the median line of the Taiwan Strait on Saturday, while Chinese fighter jets and naval vessels conducted “simulated joint precision strikes” against key targets on Taiwan island and its surrounding waters.

Chinese state media said the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) continues to “maintain the situation of closely encircling the island.”

Additionally, the Taiwanese Defence Ministry confirmed on Monday that a Chinese aircraft carrier group participated in the military exercise in the Western Pacific.

The development has raised concerns among local experts that China may now be able to launch an attack on Taiwan from the east, threatening the democratically governed island’s ability to preserve its military capabilities.

Military experts say the PLA wants to show they have the firepower to destroy key targets with the live-fire drills in different parts of the Taiwan Strait.

The three-day drill dubbed “Joint Sword” came in response to a meeting between Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and United States House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in the US state of California.

It was shorter in duration than the military exercise that took place after former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan last August. “In order to reduce the impact of the military exercise on the region, China designed a three-day military exercise, rather than a weeklong military exercise like last August,” said Tzu-yun Su, an analyst at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taiwan (INDSR).

Amanda Hsiao, senior China analyst at the International Crisis Group, told DW that Beijing believes the shows of military force are necessary for “deterring the US and Taiwan from engaging in more high-level exchanges and cooperation in the future.”

Taiwan and the US both condemned the large-scale military exercises on Saturday, with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen vowing to work with Washington and other like-minded countries in the face of authoritarian expansion. The US State Department urged restraint.

Apart from trying to discourage Taipei and Washington from holding more high-level exchanges in the future, some analysts think China is trying to demonstrate the various kinds of actions that it can take against Taiwan on a nearly “daily basis.”

According to Ben Lewis, an independent security analyst based in the US, Beijing first responded to the Tsai-McCarthy meeting with less provocative actions, such as inspecting ships in the Taiwan Strait, before launching an encirclement-style military exercise around Taiwan after French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen left Beijing.

“It’s a clear example of the spectrum of options available to Beijing to pressure Taiwan,” he told DW.

PLA spokesperson Shi Yin described the three-day military exercise — which involves a wide range of military drills and operations — as “a stern warning against the collusion between separatist forces seeking ‘Taiwan independence,’ and external forces and against their provocative activities.”