Myanmar’s quandary: Disunited opposition to challenge the army?

The question of unity has been at the center of Myanmar politics since it gained its independence in 1948: How can the Southeast Asian nation, which is home to people of multiple ethnicities, identities, and interests, be governed in an inclusive manner? The country is splintered along ethnic lines, with the largest ethnic group — the Bamar — dominating politics, although they have never managed to bring the entire national territory under their control. The military’s ranks are also largely drawn from this ethnic group. The Bamar mainly populate the central parts of the country, while various ethnic minorities have traditionally lived in the peripheral regions that surround the plains in a horseshoe shape.

Each of these ethnic minorities controls vast swathes of land.

No government has managed to unify the country in the past 75 years. Most recently, the coalition of the military and the National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Aung San Suu Kyi, also failed in this endeavor. The attempt at power-sharing failed when the military seized power in a coup on February 1, 2021, and arrested Aung San Suu Kyi, along with a number of other civilian leaders. The conflict and the resistance movement that ensued is a continuation of the nation’s bloody history of failed unity.

Thousands are believed to have been killed since the coup, although reliable figures are not available. According to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), some 1.7 million people have been internally displaced, as of March 2023. Since Myanmar’s independence, the military has always been able to prevail. An important factor was that the armed forces managed to maintain their internal cohesion for decades and thus neutralized the fragmented opposition, even though they haven’t been able to fully wipe them out.

After the coup in 2021, which was followed by nationwide protests, especially in the Bamar heartland, hopes were high that this time, the resistance would be united enough to defeat the military. The goal was to forge an alliance between the Bamar, a large majority of whom reject military rule, and the various ethnic minorities. But the challenge here is that the various opposition groups only really agree on one point: They reject the military regime and its concept of a “disciplined democracy.” Otherwise, they pursue their own interests and harbor a deep mistrust of one another.

To overcome the mistrust and forge unity, the buzzword now doing the rounds is: federalism. The Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH) sees itself as the nation’s real parliament based on the 2020 election results, which were annulled by the coup. It presented a roadmap for drafting a federal democratic charter just two months after the coup. Based on the roadmap, a shadow administration, the National Unity Government (NUG), was set up to head the resistance movement. It also formed the People’s Defense Forces (PDF), an anti-junta militia, to wage an armed campaign against the military, although many of these PDF units are not under the control of the NUG. Furthermore, the National Consultative Council (NUCC) was convened to work out the details of the federal system in more concrete terms. The NUCC includes the CRPH and the NUG, as well as influential ethnic groups, civil society actors, and trade unionists. However, the exact composition of the body is not publicly known. In general, during the drafting of a new constitution, many questions remain as to the representation and mandate of the constitution-drafting committee.

This article was provided by Deutsche Welle