Bangladesh in Turmoil: What does Sheikh Hasina's ouster mean for India?

Murali Krishnan

The dramatic events shaping Bangladeshi politics in the past few weeks have been keenly observed in India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has fostered close ties with Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League party over the past decade. With Hasina's resignation, after mass student-led protests against her government, all eyes are now on who will become part of the new interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus.

"The appointment of Mohammed Yunus, who is a developmental economist, as interim chief is a good sign," C Raja Mohan, a visiting professor at Singapore's Institute of South Asian Studies, told DW. "It takes Bangladesh down a democratic and developmental path," he added, adding that India and the West have a huge stake in the Muslim-majority South Asian nation.

But if members or supporters of the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami were to join the new government in Dhaka, that would be extremely concerning for the Indian leadership. Indian Foreign Ministry officials say the recent developments have forced New Delhi to recalibrate its approach toward its neighbour.

"From various pronouncements, it seems the [Bangladeshi] army has little appetite to stay in power as it steers an interim government. But it will be a disorganised and drawn-out job to restore civilian rule. We are waiting and watching closely," a senior Indian security official, who asked not to be named, told DW.

The fate of religious minorities in Bangladesh is also a major worry for New Delhi.

Hindus make up about 8% of Bangladesh's population of 170 million. They have traditionally generally supported Hasina's Awami League party, which identifies as largely secular, instead of the opposition bloc that includes a hardline Islamist party.

In recent days, reports have emerged of attacks on Hindu businesses and homes. "There is understandable concern in India about attacks against minorities and the generally chaotic situation still prevailing in Bangladesh," said Shyam Saran, a former Indian foreign secretary.

"But while there have been such incidents, there have also been voices condemning such violence and civil society activists have protected Hindu and other families and citizens," he told DW.

Indian security officials said on Thursday that hundreds of Bangladeshi Hindus had gathered along the Indian border hoping to cross. "What was particularly worrying was that minorities, their businesses and temples also came under attack at multiple locations. The full extent of this is still not clear," Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told lawmakers in Parliament this week.

"We are also monitoring the situation regarding the status of minorities… but will naturally remain deeply concerned till law and order is visibly restored. Our border guarding forces have also been instructed to be exceptionally alert in view of this complex situation," added Jaishankar. Engaging other actors in Bangladesh

India shares a porous 4,100-km-long border with Bangladesh. New Delhi has long been concerned about human trafficking, infiltration and terrorist activities along the frontier, particularly as Bangladesh borders the Indian states of West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, and Mizoram, which are prone to violent insurgencies. New Delhi was able to rely on Hasina's administration to ensure these security risks were kept in check.

But with a new government in Dhaka, India will need to look beyond the Awami League and engage with other major political actors in Bangladesh, say experts.

Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, founder president of Mantraya Institute for Strategic Studies, told DW that India had so far been reluctant to repair its relations with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the principal opposition outfit during Hasina's rule.

"India will have to shed its unidirectional foreign policy in Bangladesh and adapt to the new ground realities," she said. "Over time, it will have to start engaging with multiple prospective partners," she added.

She also insisted that the close bilateral military partnership be perpetuated. "Since the Indian and Bangladesh militaries have a close strategic relationship, opening a communication channel on security and border management could be useful.”