Bangladesh protests: What's next after court cuts quotas?

Arafatul Islam

Bangladesh's top court on Sunday largely scaled back a decision to reintroduce a quota system for government jobs following a week of deadly clashes between student demonstrators, police and progovernment groups. Over 150 people have been reported killed and thousands injured in the worst unrest the country has seen in decades.

Demonstrations started after the government said it would reinstate a quota system for well-paid and secure government jobs, reserving more than half for specific groups. This included 30% for descendants of "freedom fighters" who fought for Bangladesh's independence from Pakistan in 1971. It was seen as favoring supporters of long-serving Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her ruling Awami League, a claim the party has denied.

In its recommendation, the Supreme Court advised 93% of all appointments are to be based on merit with immediate effect, with 5% going to descendants of freedom fighters, and 2% to people from ethnic minorities or with disabilities. However, the court also said the government is still permitted to change the recommended quota ratio.

Internet connectivity and text messaging have been largely cut off in Bangladesh since Thursday after protests intensified. This was followed by a curfew and military deployment to help the civilian administration keep order. Despite the crackdown and the Supreme Court recommendation, some student protesters have vowed to continue.

Sarjis Alam, one of the quota reform protest coordinators, told DW that the court decision doesn't fully address their demands, as it essentially leaves it up to the government to decide on how to implement to quota system. "The court said the quota issue is a policy decision of the government and the authorities can change the ratio of the quotas if they want," said Alam. He added that the court has asked the government to quickly issue information on how it intends to reform the quota system.

"We want to see how fast the government is, and whether it reforms quotas for all government jobs or not. We will react based on the percentage of quotas the government announces," he added. Meanwhile, the student protesters are also demanding justice for those killed during the demonstrations. Alam has accused political wings of the ruling party of being involved in the protesters' deaths, a charge the government has denied. Protesters have also said they were beaten by police.

Human rights group Amnesty International said video evidence from clashes last week showed that Bangladesh's security forces had used unlawful force. On Monday, representatives of protesting students said they would halt protests for 48 hours, calling for the government to restore internet connectivity and lift the curfew. Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan told reporters that "normalcy will return within one or two days."

Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars, said Hasina's government had miscalculated in assuming that the protesters could be appeased simply by addressing the proximate cause of their demonstrations.

"In reality, this court decision is not the exit ramp that Dhaka thinks it can be. The government appears to be tone-deaf and not fully appreciating the depth of the anger in the streets, which has morphed into a rage directed at far more than the quota system," he said.

"If the government maintains its severe clampdown and continues to arrest protest leaders, that will make it tough to keep up the movement. And yet, such actions would also further intensify the public anger and grievances, creating another potential powder keg for the government," Kugelman added.

Ali Riaz, a political science professor at Illinois State University, thinks the court's recommendation has "come too late" and leaves the ball in the government's court. "Until a law is passed by the parliament, it will remain the prerogative of the executive branch to change it at some point," he said. "But the court decision smacks of the executive branch's influence. What ensures that this cannot be changed in the future?"

Riaz added that the government did not expect such a violent reaction to the quota reform. "Violence spread and lives were lost because the government was not expecting such a reaction around the country. The ruling party was quite complacent after the January election and thought it was invincible," he said.

"Unfortunately, the victims of the quota movement won't have justice, definitely not under the present government," Riaz stressed, adding that Hasina's government has a track record of resorting to "brute force" to tamp down opposition.

Bangladesh's government has blamed opposition parties for instigating violence and has arrested some of their leaders over the past few days. "Opposition political parties tried to topple the government by taking advantage of the situation. But, their attempt failed," M. A. Mannan, a ruling Awami League party parliamentarian and ex-planning minister, told DW.

Mannan acknowledged that the government could have solved the quota issue better, and much earlier, but, he thinks that "the situation is under control" now. However, South Asia expert Kugelman said Prime Minister Hasina has been damaged politically by the unrest over quotas.

"Her aura of invincibility the idea that she can maintain control and keep any dissent in check  has been shattered. Her legitimacy, already fragile after returning to power in an election boycotted by the opposition, has been greatly weakened," he said.