By Firing Gallant, Netanyahu Removes One Threat but Risks Another

Patrick Kingsley

By dismissing his defense minister, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has consolidated his hold over his coalition by removing his main internal critic, making it easier for him to set wartime policy in the short term.

But the move also comes with long-term risks. By firing a popular rival who had opposed some of his most divisive policies, Netanyahu has fueled criticism that he thinks his personal survival is more important than the national interest.

The departing minister, Yoav Gallant, had broken with Netanyahu by pressing for a cease-fire with Hamas, saying it was the only way to free dozens of Israeli hostages held by the group in the Gaza Strip. On the domestic front, Gallant had pushed to scrap an exemption from military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews, a measure that risked collapsing Netanyahu’s government because it angered its ultra-Orthodox members.

“Netanyahu saw Gallant as the opposition within his own coalition,” said Nadav Shtrauchler, a political analyst and former strategist for Netanyahu. “Now, it will be easier for him to go in his own direction, not just politically, but militarily and strategically.”

Netanyahu swiftly denied that he would use Gallant’s departure to fire other senior members of the security establishment. Still, commentators speculated that after replacing Gallant with Israel Katz, who is expected to be a more pliant defense minister, Netanyahu would find it easier to remove the military chief of staff, Herzi Halevi.

On a similar note, the reelection of Donald Trump on Wednesday may temper any backlash in Washington over Gallant’s dismissal. The Biden administration saw Gallant as a trusted partner, especially as its relations with Netanyahu soured, but the election result has further reduced its influence over the prime minister’s thinking.

“Maybe the Biden administration people didn’t like his firing, but by Jan. 20, you will have Trump,” said Itamar Rabinovich, a former Israeli ambassador to Washington. Netanyahu is “not very much concerned” by the Biden administration’s frustrations, Rabinovich said.

Still, the move comes with potential costs for Netanyahu.

In firing the defense minister, Netanyahu has drawn accusations that he is prioritizing personal goals over national ones to appease far-right and ultra-Orthodox members of his coalition. And the move suggested that he will press ahead with policies that are either deeply unpopular, in the case of the exemption for the ultra-Orthodox, or at least polarizing — like his refusal to compromise in the cease-fire negotiations with Hamas.

Neither move will immediately bring down his government, but they could both damage him in a future election. As Israel fights the longest war in its history, some Israelis are completing their third tours of reserve duty in Gaza or Lebanon. That has raised questions among soldiers about why they should shoulder the burden on the battlefield while Netanyahu allows ultra-Orthodox Jews to avoid military service.

The resentment over that imbalance could rise over time, even within Netanyahu’s base, much of which is conservative and religious but still serves in the military.

In a sign of widespread discontent over Netanyahu’s decision to fire Gallant, tens of thousands of protesters spilled into the streets in Israel on Tuesday night, blocking a major highway, while newspaper columnists wrote strong condemnations in the Wednesday papers.

“Netanyahu’s sacred principle, his only principle: clinging to power at any cost,” Nadav Eyal wrote in a column for Yediot Ahronot, a centrist newspaper.

“If you, the brave reservist who served 230 days this year, whose children do not sleep at night, whose businesses have suffered, whose relationships with your spouses have suffered — if you have to pay a price so that Netanyahu can close a deal with the ultra-Orthodox, you will pay,” Eyal added.

The anger has been compounded by recent allegations that Netanyahu’s office illegally obtained secret documents from the military and leaked them to foreign news outlets in order to torpedo a deal to pause the war in Gaza and free the hostages held there. Netanyahu has denied the claims and one person in his office has been arrested.

By firing Gallant, Netanyahu is “evidently calculating that it will only be a short-term firestorm and he will then be left in a better position,” said Michael Koplow, an analyst at the Israel Policy Forum, a New York-based research group.

But his support for the policies opposed by Gallant “will cost him in the long term,” Koplow said. “So even if his short term calculation is correct, he may turn out to be penny-wise and pound-foolish.”

On issues that matter most to Israel’s critics, like the conduct of Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon, Gallant was fairly aligned with Netanyahu.

Prosecutors at the International Criminal Court sought arrest warrants for both men in relation to the Gaza offensive. It was Gallant who played a bigger day-to-day role in managing a campaign against Hamas that has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza and damaged most of the enclave’s buildings. Gallant was also one of the first ministers to push for the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, months before the government signed off on his assassination.

But within Israel, Gallant was seen as a thorn in Netanyahu’s side.

His public disputes with the prime minister began several months before the war, when in March 2023 he spoke out against Netanyahu’s efforts to overhaul the judicial system. Netanyahu fired him days later, only to rescind his dismissal after mass protests swept the country.

During the war, Gallant had spoken publicly about Palestinian governance in postwar Gaza, an idea that Netanyahu had avoided discussing in detail for fear of angering far-right allies who seek to settle Jewish civilians in the territory.

And Gallant had developed a strong and independent relationship with the Biden administration, irking Netanyahu, whose relationship with President Joe Biden has become fractious even as the president continues to arm and fund Israel’s military.