Editorial: Blowin’ in the wind

The results of elections to the Maharashtra Assembly and byelections across the country are a sobering reminder that the setback dealt to the Narendra Modi government back in June did not end the slide towards ethnonationalism, but only put it on pause. While the impressive numbers toted up by the BJP have immediate import to Maharashtra politics, they contain several pointers to the nation at large.

The most immediate of these consequences is the strengthening of Modi’s position within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), effectively returning the coalition to the 2014-2019 period when TDP and Janata Dal (U) were content to be sleeping partners in it. The returns from Maharashtra blow apart the myth that Modi rules at the pleasure of M/s Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar. Having seen the performance of the BJP in Haryana and Maharashtra, the duo will now be loath to chancing their arm.

The BJP is also likely to interpret these results as a green flag to resume its march towards Hindu Rashtra. After the party’s tally dwindled to 240 in the Lok Sabha elections, the Modi-Shah duo seems to have patched up their differences with the RSS and Yogi Adityanath and the latest results will give a fillip to their plans for the RSS’s centenary next year. Of course, there’s a long way to go to Hindu Rashtra and the arithmetic needed for constitutional amendments is still to be attained. But we are likely to see Modi return to his sengol-wielding avatar of circa January 2024 in the months ahead.

A significant pointer available from the Maharashtra results is the ongoing decimation of regional parties at the hands of the BJP. Not only did the saffron party win 132 out of the 149 seats it contested, it succeeded in reducing Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party to rump status. A question mark now hangs over their survival. At the same time, Ajit Pawar’s NCP and Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena exist in the Mahayuti coalition entirely at the BJP’s mercy, dreading the prospect of being swallowed up anytime should they mewl too loudly.

The diminution of regional parties has been a BJP objective since Modi’s advent in 2014. Since then, we have seen the destruction, reduction or waning of several of them, be they allies or opponents: AIADMK, YSRCP, Akali Dal, Janata Dal (S), BJD, BSP, Jannayak Janata Party and even the Janata Dal (U) and RJD. The removal of regional parties is a major stepping stone towards Hindu Rashtra and has great implications for the survival of federalism in India. The Maharashtra election is likely to presage a Trojan horse move on the Bharata Rashtra Samithi in Telangana soon and gradually a camel-and-Arab operation against the TDP in Andhra Pradesh.

Another notable outcome is the long-foreseen marginalisation of the Congress in yet another state. The party’s inability to make significant gains in either Haryana or Maharashtra, where the forecasts rather favoured it, reflects its ongoing struggles with grassroots mobilisation and its failure to present a coherent alternative narrative. Rahul Gandhi’s flirtation with Mandalite ideology and his lisping of Ambedkarite sympathies will never convince the voter. The Congress’s waning is an inevitable corollary to the BJP’s waxing. It’s a fate being suffered by social democratic parties worldwide. The winds are blowing for the BJP right now.