Editorial: Caving into Trump

The first week of Donald Trump’s presidency has already shaken the world with swift, sweeping actions that hold great implications for every country. Several of these decisions are consequential to India. Just the first burst of them has blown to bits the notion that we are insulated from Trump-unleashed chaos because of our self-claimed Vishwaguru status or the chemistry our PM imagines he shares with the new US President.

We had months of foreknowledge of this gathering storm. We knew that India would cop the fallout of Trump tariffs on US trade partners, especially after he called us the “worst tariff offender” during his poll campaign. His immigration crackdown was sure to have direct implications for India because it is the third largest contributor to the immigrant influx across the US southern border. He is now threatening 100 percent tariffs on BRICS countries—India is a member—for promoting non-dollar global trade. This week, new Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered a pause on all foreign aid projects, effectively scuppering all USAID programmes in India. The future of the H1B visa remains in the balance as Trump is torn between his MAGA base and his Silicon Valley funders.

China has been preparing for this challenge for months. It is already carrying out a proactive strategy to make its economy sanctions-proof. Months ago, it applied a stimulus to its economy to arrest the flight of western capital. It allowed its currency to be devalued progressively to keep its exports dollar-neutral and competitive. It began sourcing imports from alternative markets, such as soybean from Brazil. It now stands ready with retaliatory measures should Trump carry out his threat to raise tariffs by 100 percent. Last week, it unveiled DeepSeek, an audacious open-source AI model designed to counter American technological dominance.

In contrast, India has chosen appeasement as its response. Without a murmur, New Delhi has agreed to accept 18,000 illegal immigrants without conducting verification. Even before Trump’s inaugural, it quietly threw under the bus an Indian national, possibly a government employee, who is accused of involvement in the plot to murder Sikh activist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in New York. Last week, India’s government convened consultations to discuss increasing oil and agricultural imports from the US, reducing tariffs on US goods, and even negotiating a limited trade deal. There are also indications of a potential shift towards increased defence procurement from the US. Petroleum minister Hardeep Singh Puri has done some loud thinking on importing more oil from the US.

The problem with these measures is that they all seem exigent, tuned to sound good to the new man in the White House. The brief for consultations in the Commerce Ministry apparently was to take measures that will pare India’s $35.5 bn trade surplus with the US and at the same time please Trump’s MAGA base, such as buying pecan nuts from Georgia. This is no way to practice policy, especially by a country that claims to have a broad-based vision of the world. Decisions on defence and oil supplies especially must arise from a long-held strategic policy rather than an expedient of the moment. If not, they amount to little more than appeasement and speak of a geopolitical weakness—a weakness that the present ethnonationalist stewards of our policy must account for.