Editorial: Donaldian deja vu, best served cold

In a historic return to power, Donald Trump breezed past Kamala Harris to bag the seat of the most powerful person in the world. The next few weeks will witness tomes being written on the far-reaching impacts of yet another Trump presidency. So let’s get right down to brass tacks and unpack the outsized impact of a redux of Abki Baar Trump Sarkar. As a master manipulator, adept at stoking nationalist pride in his followers, Trump had endeared himself to a huge chunk of the Indian diaspora in America when he spoke about protecting the rights of Hindu Americans, while calling out the human rights violations being perpetrated on Hindus in our neighbouring nation of Bangladesh.

Closer home, there is the warm fuzziness of a decadal camaraderie reignited in the aftermath of Trump’s victory, with the bromance between him and Prime Minister Modi serving as an emblem of Washington’s and New Delhi’s ‘strong as steel’ bilateral ties. The Howdy Modi extravaganza in Texas in 2019 was offset by the Namaste Trump gala in Ahmedabad a year later, and were termed as events showcasing the interdependence on each other — of two of the world’s biggest democracies. Of course, being the business mogul that he is, Trump never extends a handshake before ensuring that the American cup runneth over.

And this is probably where India might need to exercise some discretion. Trump has previously expressed his displeasure on the high tariffs levied by New Delhi on American imports, more specifically, the Harley Davidson motorbikes. Trump has hinted at the imposition of a reciprocal tax of 60% on Chinese goods, and 20% on goods from other nations, which could potentially cause 0.1% dip in India’s GDP by 2028 (per figures from Bloomberg). Another fear factor looming on the minds of Indians harbouring the American Dream is the manner in which Trump will address the annual allotment of 85,000 H1B (non-immigrant) visas, aimed at onboarding highly skilled STEM professionals in the US ecosystem. It’s a touchy subject as Indians were recipients of the highest number of work visas from the US, taking up 72% of visas issued in FY 2023.

Zooming out on a macro level, India cannot assume that it’s going to be business as usual vis-a-vis bilateral ties. Recall that in the aftermath of the Galwan skirmish, Trump had refrained from condemning China, and instead offered to play the role of a mediator between the two nations. While Washington might view New Delhi as a formidable counterweight to Beijing in the APAC region, Trump knows which side of his bread is buttered. The ongoing commitment to Quad aside, Trump will attempt to crack down on Indian autonomy by getting New Delhi to reduce its cooperation with Moscow in civilian (energy) and military deals, while refraining from offering us a viable alternative. A case in point is how the US refused to entertain India’s requests for the electromagnetic catapult for its new aircraft carriers. Let’s not forget, Trump’s re-ascension has transpired at a time when Indo-West ties have hit an all-time low, with the fracas involving Khalistani extremists being sheltered in Canada and the tit for tat removal of diplomats. Now that Trump has occupied the Oval Office, India will need to judiciously recalibrate its foreign policy, that in some ways could future proof it from the volatility that is to follow.