Editorial: Put a lid on it
The SJM co-convenor alluded to RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat recently urging couples to have at least three children to offset our TFR dip.
Representative image
Last week, the Swadeshi Jagran Manch (SJM), an affiliate of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) expressed dismay over India's 'fast declining' total fertility rate (TFR) and called upon citizens and the government to look into the issue, adding that it may cause an imbalance in population and slow down the country's growth. The SJM co-convenor alluded to RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat recently urging couples to have at least three children to offset our TFR dip. The TFR is the number of babies an average woman bears over her reproductive years. The results of a Lancet study reported that India's TFR dipped to 1.91 by 2021, and estimated it to further plummet to 1.29 by 2050. In fact, many developed countries have been facing contraction in their population with constantly declining TFR.
In South Korea, Japan, and Germany, the TFR has dropped below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman , emerging as a cause for deliberation. Japan has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world (around 1.4 children per woman). Unpacking these fears of extinction will require us to present a few metrics. Population scientists surmise that TFR differentials among communities do not represent a significant problem for India as TFR is rapidly converging among all socio-religious groups.
Out of an estimated 1.45 bnIndians, Hindus account for 1.15 bn people. Per the latest estimates from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) 2019-21, TFR among Hindus is 1.94; Muslims 2.36; Christians 1.88; and Sikhs 1.61. The fertility in the last two decades dropped by 30% among Hindus, while the corresponding decline among Muslims was 35%. If the prevailing order continues, the rates for both will converge by 2030.
On the bright side, India has the distinction of being the first nation globally to initiate a comprehensive national programme focussed on family planning. However, a few BJP-ruled states such as Assam and UP have introduced stringent measures to control population growth. Assam has passed a law prohibiting individuals with more than two children from applying for government jobs. The state Law Commission of UP went one step further to propose that families exceeding the two-child norm should not receive government subsidies.
Interestingly, over the past few months, the Chief Ministers of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have urged couples to have more children to arrest the lower population growth rates. Their fear stems from the fact that southern states which have successfully controlled population growth will be penalised by a drastic cut in their representation in the Lok Sabha in the event of a reconfiguration based on current census data. The Centre is expected to commence the next census in 2025, followed by the delimitation process in 2027. Policy experts have said that the declining fertility could be attributed to fast paced urbanisation, improvement in education status, especially among women, rising marriage age, awareness of reproductive rights and improved access to contraception. Let’s not forget, there are also factors such as rising cost of living, along with expenses incurred on healthcare, housing and education, which have acted as deterrents in population growth.
What is necessary at this point is to put an end to fear-mongering narratives and bolster the citizens with empowering policies. A lower fertility rate should be seen as a golden opportunity to beef up investments in health, education and gender inclusivity. In short, improve the living standards of the ones that are still around.