Erdogan leverages on global turmoil

The imprisonment of Istanbul's opposition mayor has come at a time when Turkiye finds itself at the centre of geopolitical turmoil that observers say has freed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to target his most dangerous opponent.

Ekrem Imamoglu was detained in a dawn raid on his official residence last week. On Sunday, a court ordered him to be jailed pending trial for graft offences, including bid-rigging and accepting bribes. He also faces terror-related charges.

As mayor of the economic and cultural capital of Turkiye with a population of 16 million, Imamoglu is probably Turkey's second-highest-profile politician after Erdogan.

However, analysts say a convergence of international factors allowed Erdogan to try to neutralise the main threat to him in elections to be held in 2028, but which could come sooner.

“There is a really special confluence of factors that made this seemingly easy for him to pull off in terms of not suffering international condemnation or punishment for it,” said Monica Marks, professor of Middle East studies at New York University Abu Dhabi.

The arrest of Imamoglu over corruption and terrorism allegations came as a bombshell last Wednesday, despite recent legal cases against district mayors from his Republican People's Party, or CHP.

Since 2016, when Erdogan faced an attempted coup, Turkiye's courts have widened their crackdown on opposition parties, using charges such as graft or ties to Kurdish militants to discredit his rivals.

The government, however, says the courts are fully independent and denies claims that legal actions against opposition figures are politically motivated.

Turkiye's strategic assets

The European Union, which usually offers criticism of Turkiye's democratic slide, currently finds itself in a weaker position vis-a-vis Turkey due to “American abandonment” of European defence, Russian aggression, and its “own internal demons” from EU-sceptic forces using migration as a tool to gain relevance, according to Marks.

Ankara is in a position to offer succour in all these areas. Militarily, Turkiye has NATO's second-largest army and a well-developed defence industry capable of supplying high-tech weaponry such as aerial drones.

During the war in Ukraine, Turkiye maintained close ties with both Moscow and Kyiv and has repeatedly offered to act as a mediator in peace talks.

Turkiye is also emboldened by the collapse of the Assad government in neighbouring Syria at the hands of rebels it supported over the course of the war. These rebels now make up the new government.

On migration to Europe, Ankara has acted as a barrier since it signed a 2016 deal in which it agreed to prevent migrants from crossing its borders and seas to reach the EU.

All these strands increase Turkiye's geopolitical importance to Europe.

Internal strife the trigger

President Donald Trump's isolationist outlook has also strengthened Erdogan's hand, said Marks, while the “normalisation of populist authoritarianism makes what Erdogan is doing less shocking, less concerning for Western democracies”.

While international elements offered Erdogan the opportunity to act against Imamoglu, the timing was due to domestic factors.

Berk Esen, a political scientist at Istanbul's Sabanci University, said the CHP's decision to confirm Imamoglu as its presidential candidate for 2028 was key to his arrest.

“Erdogan was hopeful that he could slow down, if not completely hinder, Imamoglu's candidacy prospects,” Esen said. “But when the CHP decided to hold (presidential) primaries, it became clear that Imamoglu would come out as the candidate for the CHP so Erdogan wanted to move against him right away.”

Those primaries — in which Imamoglu was the only candidate — were held Sunday, confirming the imprisoned Imamoglu as Erdogan's challenger.

The Kurdish factor

Another domestic factor in Erdogan's favour was the tentative peace process begun with the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, which has waged a 40-year insurgency against the Turkish state and is considered a terrorist organization by Turkey and its Western allies.

Many observers have suggested the process is, at least in part, a bid to co-opt Turkiye's pro-Kurdish party into supporting Erdogan's bid for another presidential term.

Similarly, it could serve to split the Kurds from the CHP, presenting Erdogan with a divided opposition, Esen said.

Imamoglu has emerged as the main challenger to Erdogan's 22-year rule since he was elected mayor of Istanbul in 2019, overturning a quarter-century of rule by parties from Turkiye's conservative Islamist tradition.

According to Esen, he is the “perfect” candidate to take on Erdogan – relatively young at 53, from a conservative Sunni background but with a “modern” wife, and hailing from the Black Sea business world that offers nationwide informal connections.

He has outperformed Erdogan in recent polls and represents what Marks called the “last bastion” of Turkish opposition. As to the significance of putting Imamoglu behind bars, Marks said it represents the “last stop on Turkiye's political train before it hits full dictatorship station".