Functions of fertility

A recent working paper by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) said that between 1950 and 2015, the share of the majority Hindu population had decreased by 7.82 per cent, from 84.68 per cent to 78.06 per cent, while that of the Muslim population had increased from 9.84 per cent to 14.09 per cent – a 43.15 per cent surge. The paper titled ‘Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015), prepared by a team led by Shamika Ravi, member, EAC-PM, suggested that there is a conducive environment in India to foster diversity.

The report highlighted the wider context within the South Asian region where the share of the majority religious denomination has increased and minority populations have shrunk alarmingly across countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and Afghanistan. The timing of the release of this report is telling, considering we are in an election year. The ruling party at the Centre has been on a blitzkrieg of sorts drumming up communal passions and engaging in finger-wagging forewarnings on the dangers of population jihad.

A few numbers might be necessary to contextualise these findings within the ambit of India’s population split. The report relies on almost a decade old data that ignores the 1,520% increase in share in the total population of Buddhists. Also, for every one Muslim, five Hindus were born during this period. The Hindu population, which was 320 million in 1950 has tripled. At present, Hindus constitute 79.80% of the country’s population while Muslims make up 14.23%.

Let’s also take into account the notion of total fertility rate (TFR), which is expressed as the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime. A rate of 2.1 (the replacement level) implies that the population is stable. The total fertility rate of Muslims was 2.36 in 2019-21, which is much closer to the replacement level. The Muslim TFR witnessed the sharpest drop from the high of 3.59 in 1998-99 to 2.36 in 2019-21, which is a dip of 2.05 as against Hindu women’s drop of 1.36, which leaves the latter’s TFR at 1.94. Demographers are optimistic that the Muslim population will eventually stabilise by the end of the century at 18.8%, while Hindus would retain their majority status by a significant margin of 74.7%. So the fears of losing the majority status might at best be unfounded.

The stark variations in fertility levels among Muslim women across different regions had a correlation with not just the economic development of the state, but also was dependent on progress on societal indices. For instance, fertility rates were lower in states where the share of literate women was higher. A case in point is the fertility rate of Muslim women in Tamil Nadu which was 1.9, and in Karnataka which was 2.0. This is much lower than Jharkhand’s level of 2.7, and Rajasthan’s 2.4.

It’s interesting to note that the number of children one chooses to have has more to do with socio economic parameters than religion. Government data indicates that educating girls, and not marrying them off at an early age, coupled with creating more awareness of family planning, and ensuring access to contraception goes a long way in reducing fertility levels. If bringing the population to a manageable level is on the government’s mind, the priority should be to focus on the educational and economic empowerment of underserved communities, across all religious strata.