In an aging world, youthful Africa steps up

• Much of the world is accustomed to thinking of Africa as an impoverished sideshow, accounting for only a small share of the world’s population and gross domestic product — but what if that is poised to change? Experts at the International Monetary Fund have argued that we are entering the “African century.” I wouldn’t go that far, but they are right to point to profound demographic and other shifts suggesting that Africa will play a far more important role in the world. A few data points:

— Because of collapsing fertility elsewhere, Africa will make up an increasing share of the world’s population. Africa accounted for less than 10% of the world’s population until the early 1970s, but a demographic forecast in The Lancet suggests that by 2100, 54% of the world’s babies will be born in sub-Saharan Africa. Include North Africa, and the share is even higher.

— If those forecasts are right (and always be skeptical of long-term demographic forecasts), then at some point in the 22nd century, a majority of the world’s population would be African.

— A century ago, there were similar numbers of Africans and North Americans. Now there are 2.5 times as many Africans. By 2100, there are expected to be five times as many Africans.

— By 2100, more than 80% of the world’s population is expected to be African or Asian.

— In 2100, the most populous French-speaking countries are forecast to be Congo and Ivory Coast. Already, the city with the most French speakers is not Paris but Kinshasa, Congo. One estimate suggests that by 2050, 85% of French speakers could live in Africa.

— From 2001 to 2010, six of the 10 fastest-growing economies of the world were in Africa, signifying what is possible. African growth then slowed, but the World Bank estimates that sub-Saharan Africa grew by 3.6% in 2024 and will grow by 4.2% this year — only a hair slower than Asia’s forecast of 4.4%.

In an aging and perhaps enfeebled world, Africa will also be a continent of youth — arguably making it comparatively vigorous and more of a hotbed for entrepreneurship and for music and popular culture. In a sign of increasing cultural influence, Africans in recent years have won the Booker Prize and the Nobel Prize in literature. Africans are shaping the French language, coining terms like “Wesh?” (meaning “What’s up?”) and deuxième bureau (literally “second office” but signifying “mistress”).

Yet if Africa’s challenges are enormous, plenty in Africa also gives me hope. Over the decades, I’ve visited 53 of its 54 countries, and today, I see enormous gains in education and the emergence of leaders ready to pull the continent forward.

The Seychelles was long a one-party state with rigid controls that devastated the economy. But in 2008, a financial crisis forced change, and since then, the country has built a modern economy, nurtured tourism and attracted digital nomads (it’s hard to beat a beautiful island with favorable tax policies).

Many people feel that the natural order is for America and Europe to dominate the world, but in historical terms, that is a recent phenomenon going back just a few centuries. For most of history, Asia led the world in GDP and population. Perhaps demography will now give Africa a turn to rise, finally.

It’s difficult to generalize about Africa. But I suspect that the continent will become more important in our lives. I’m just not entirely sure whether that will be because of its successes or its struggles. Most likely, both.