In Venezuela, a Suspicious Win for the Strongmen

Michael Albertus

In what appears to be a deeply unfair election riddled with irregularities, Venezuela’s authoritarian president, Nicolas Maduro, seems to have survived once again. The outcome, which is already facing challenges and unrest that could grow in the coming days, is not just a disappointment for the opposition and the millions of Venezuelans yearning for democratic change. The election was a crucial test of the durability of the new brand of authoritarianism gripping the Americas — and it has proved that the movement may not fade away anytime soon.

Across the Western Hemisphere, democracy is being snuffed out or seriously challenged. Over the past 20 years, Venezuela, Nicaragua and El Salvador have slid into dictatorships. In late 2022, Peru’s president sought to dissolve its legislature, although he landed in jail. Guatemala had a close call last year, with the attorney general’s office attempting to prevent a peaceful transition of power. And it remains to be seen whether Mexico’s recently elected president, Claudia Sheinbaum, will continue the erosion of democratic checks and balances that her predecessor began.

It’s not a universally grim picture. Elsewhere — in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and the United States — democracy is succeeding. But it is being tested as the opposition to pluralism and inclusion grows and social unrest and dissatisfaction with the government spreads against a backdrop of stark inequality and institutional instability.

Venezuela’s election is a fulcrum moment for the Americas. Despite high turnout, there were numerous reports of voting irregularities, voter intimidation and problems at voting centers. Nevertheless, with 80 percent of the votes counted, the nation’s electoral council declared Maduro the winner with 51.2 percent of the vote compared with 44.2 percent for his main rival. Because officials at many voting centers refused to hand over paper copies of the vote tallies, the opposition had no concrete way to point to a different outcome.

If Maduro can ride out the postelection turmoil and remain in office another full term, it will be a green light to other budding autocrats in the region that they, too, can act with near impunity. Sham elections, human rights abuses and corruption could spread if there is not organized international pushback against them, while the voices of domestic constituencies are weakened by repression. The backsliding of democracy happened before: Many nascent democracies in Latin America collapsed during the Cold War only to be resurrected after its end.

So far, Maduro has done everything he can to cling to power. Before the election, his government barred the opposition’s most popular candidate from running for president, made it harder for millions of Venezuelans living abroad to vote and used state resources to dominate media coverage and run his campaign. He even tried to rebrand himself as more likable on social media to connect with voters who are too young to remember when Venezuela was a flourishing democracy.

The international community has struggled to respond effectively. The United States reimposed oil sanctions on Venezuela after Maduro failed to uphold an agreement to conduct a clean vote; in response, his government increased taxes on businesses to cover some of the revenue shortfall and avoid angering key voters. The government withdrew its invitation to European Union election observers, citing sanctions, and the participation of other observers was expected to be so thin that they could not have provided comprehensive monitoring. This year Venezuela also expelled the United Nations agency that monitors human rights in the country.

Another six years of Maduro in Venezuela would not just be a blow to the millions of Venezuelans who turned out to vote for the opposition on Sunday. It also could advance authoritarianism well beyond the country. Venezuela since the time of Hugo Chávez’s rule has been a leader in cultivating a network of authoritarian states in the Americas that support one another through mutual economic aid and sharing civilian surveillance strategies and capacities. These states also employ the same tools of repression: monitoring and badgering their political opponents, attacking the media and weaponizing migration. Together, they have forged closer ties with Russia and China.

Another six years of Maduro would also have destabilizing effects on neighboring democracies. Venezuela has hemorrhaged over seven million people who have fled an increasingly repressive government and imploding economy. That exodus has strained social safety nets and the openness to migrants in nearby countries like Colombia and Peru. It has also increased immigration to the United States, as hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans have sought to cross the U.S.-Mexico border or overstay their visas.

All of this is not a foregone conclusion. Venezuela’s opposition is united in ways that it hasn’t been for years. Pre-election polls put Maduro at a steep disadvantage had the election been free and fair, and millions of Venezuelans are well aware that it was not. They could turn to the streets, now that the ballot box option has been foreclosed. That could open an uncertain process of backdoor negotiations in which the regime sought an offramp — but only if it could win guarantees against international prosecution for its misdeeds.

It would be a significant boon to democracy if Maduro was eventually forced to step down or enticed to strike a deal with the opposition to bring authentic political change to the country. And that could have its own ripple effect. History shows that democratic change often happens in waves. Successful opposition movements can gain momentum and spread across borders, quickly revealing the weaknesses of incumbent dictators elsewhere and prompting change. If Maduro steps down, authoritarian regimes in Cuba and Nicaragua may soon come under more pressure from their populations.

The window of opportunity is slim, but if the opposition can capitalize on the moment and get Maduro out, it will set an example for other countries to do the same and give a lift to democratic governance across the region and beyond.