Middle-East crisis: As its conflict with Israel escalates, could Iran now acquire a nuclear bomb?

As Israel continues its assault on Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran appears increasingly backed into a corner. Israel’s efforts to weaken Iran’s proxy network have focused on a number of objectives: eliminating key Hezbollah leaders, destroying their weapons and other military sites, and targeting large numbers of fighters and sympathisers. Hezbollah has undoubtedly been weakened over the past few weeks, which presents a dilemma for Iran. Could this sustained pressure on its main militant proxy group push Iran towards finally acquiring a nuclear weapon?

The use of armed proxy networks as a deterrence strategy is a well-known approach employed by countries worldwide. Iran has successfully adopted this strategy for decades, starting with Hezbollah in Lebanon and extending to Palestinian militant groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, various Iraqi militant factions, and Houthi rebels in Yemen.

This strategy has allowed Iran to project power in the region and counter pressure from the United States, Israel and their allies, while deterring any direct military confrontation from its adversaries.

Both Iran and Israel have until recently appeared reluctant to engage in a full-scale war. Instead, they have adhered to certain rules of engagement in which they apply pressure on each other without escalating to all-out conflict. This is something neither side can afford.

Iran has long avoided direct confrontation with Israel, even when Israel has targeted its groups in Syria and assassinated several Iranian nuclear scientists over the past few decades. Recently, however, this strategy has shifted. Feeling the impact of Israel’s prolonged assaults on its proxy network, Iran has responded by launching two direct missile attacks against Israel in the past six months.

This indicates that as pressure on Iran’s proxies intensifies, Tehran may increasingly resort to alternative strategies to reestablish effective deterrence against Israel and its Western allies.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed a “harsh response” to Iran’s latest missile attack against Israel in early October. This could push Iran further towards changing its deterrence strategy, particularly if Israel strikes Iran’s nuclear facilities. With pressure growing on Iran’s leaders, the regime is now openly discussing whether to declare a military nuclear program. This would represent a major shift in Iranian policy. Iran has long maintained that its nuclear program is strictly for civilian purposes, with no intention of developing a military component. The US and its allies have contested this assertion.

On October 8, the Iranian parliament announced it had received draft legislation for the “expansion of Iran’s nuclear industry”, which will be discussed in parliament. The nature of this expansion is not yet known – it’s unclear whether it will include a military program. However, recent statements by Iranian officials suggest such an agenda.

Calls in Iran for a revision of the country’s defence doctrine are growing louder. This week, nearly 40 lawmakers wrote a letter to the Supreme National Security Council, which decides on Iran’s general security policy. They demanded the council reconsider the current nuclear policy, noting that Khamenei’s fatwa forbidding the production of a nuclear bomb could be subject to change due to current developments.

In the same vein, Ayatollah Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the founder of the Islamic revolution and former Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini, called last week for “enhancing the level of deterrence” against Israel. Iranian media interpreted this as referring to nuclear weapons.

There have also been reports speculating that an earthquake in Iran last week could actually have been a nuclear bomb test.