Modi-Putin Rendezvous: How have the India-Russia ties shaped up?

Murali Krishnan

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be in Russia today, marking his first visit to Moscow since the launch of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Modi, who was returned to power last month as leader of the world's most populous country, is walking a fine line between maintaining a longstanding partnership with Moscow while courting closer Western security ties. The war in Ukraine has drawn scrutiny to Russia's close ties with India, as Kyiv's Western partners urge Modi's government to condemn the invasion and put pressure on the Kremlin.

New Delhi has so far refrained from explicitly condemning Russia for its actions in Ukraine. It has also abstained on United Nations resolutions criticizing Moscow. Modi's visit to Russia "aims to showcase India's strategic independence," said Gulshan Sachdeva, a professor at the Jawaharlal Nehru University's Center for European Studies in New Delhi, told DW. "While it further strengthens bilateral ties, it will be closely watched internationally amid growing tensions with Russia."

Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, the founder and president of Mantraya, an independent research forum, told DW that Modi's trip "will raise concerns in the West." But, she said, "New Delhi has always used the rationale of 'strategic autonomy' to maintain ties with non-Western countries." Ahead of Modi's visit, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar emphasized the strong historical India-Russia cooperation and the significant growth in their economic relationship.

"It is a way of taking stock of any relationship. One of the biggest changes has been that our economic relationship with Russia has grown tremendously at the leadership level, it will be a great opportunity for PM Modi and President [Vladimir] Putin to sit down and directly talk to each other," he told the news agency ANI. India has long-standing political and strategic ties with Russia dating back to the Cold War era. Moscow was for a long time India's biggest arms supplier.

But Russia's share of India's weapon imports has shrunk considerably in recent years, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), dropping from as high as 76% in 2009-13 to 36% in 2019-23. India has sought to diversify its foreign sources of military gear in recent years, increasingly buying arms from Western countries like France and the US.

Over the past couple of years, India has also boosted its purchases of discounted Russian oil.This development has provided a much-needed export market for Moscow after it was cut off from traditional buyers in Europe. That has dramatically reshaped energy ties, with India saving billions of dollars while bolstering Moscow's coffers.

Anil Wadhwa, a former Indian diplomat, told DW that both sides will be keen to continue their partnership and increase investments in each other's economies despite the threat of Western sanctions. He said cooperation in oil and gas as well as defense will be high on the agenda of Modi and Putin. "Equally important will be the Russian stance on the BRICS' expansion, the relationship with China and prospects for cooperation in new areas like connectivity between the two countries," he added.

Sachdeva said Modi and Putin would likely elevate India-Russia ties to the next level due to increased energy trade and the operationalization of transport corridors. "India is concerned that Western pressure on Russia is causing Moscow to become increasingly dependent on

China," he said. "India does not support the Western objective of a Russian 'strategic defeat,' believing that a stronger Russia is essential for maintaining a multipolar world."

The view among India's foreign policy establishment is that New Delhi will find itself in a position of vulnerability if Russia emerges from its war in Ukraine defeated, weakened, and more beholden to China. Moscow's deepening ties with Beijing since invading Ukraine have already raised concerns for New Delhi. China and India, the world's two most populous nations, have territorial disputes which have led to skirmishes along their shared border.

Both New Delhi and Beijing are also geostrategic rivals competing for political and economic influence in Asia. "China is something that dominates the Indian strategic mind-space. A formal Russia-China alliance is a worst-case scenario for India … We should exert all our energy to ensure this kind of scenario doesn't happen," Pankaj Saran, a former Indian deputy national security adviser, said during a discussion hosted in April by the United States Institute of Peace Modi on Thursday skipped the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a

security grouping created by Moscow and Beijing to counter the Western-led global order. Modi sent his foreign minister instead to the SCO gathering, attended by Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Modi has regularly attended the summit in the past, raising questions about the reasons behind his absence this time. Indian media reports speculated that the recently reelected Modi was busy with the Parliament session last week.

D. Bala Venkatesh Varma, who served as India's ambassador to Russia from 2019 to 2021, said the Modi-Putin summit will "set the tone" for bilateral relations over the next decade. He noted that both sides face the challenge of adjusting to the changing geopolitical landscape. "The rise of China, European security in the shadow of the Ukraine conflict and uncertainty of American leadership looming large, this summit will set the tone for India-Russia relations for the coming years," Varma told DW.

From Moscow, Modi will travel to Vienna for the first visit to the Austrian capital by an Indian leader since Indira Gandhi in 1983.