Niger drama: Coup spells political dilemma for Algeria

WASHINGTON: On Saturday evening, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune expressed, in clear terms, his country’s position on the ultimatum issued by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) against the new military junta in Niger.

“We categorically reject any military intervention,” Tebboune said. Any external military action in Niger would be “a direct threat to Algeria,” Tebboune said, speaking just a few hours before the ultimatum expired. In the event of an intervention, “the entire Sahel will go up in flames,” he warned.

“We are the main ones affected. Algeria shares an almost thousand-kilometer border with Niger,” he added. Algeria would not use force against its neighbors, he said, but there would be “no solution” without Algeria either. A few days earlier, the Algerian government had condemned the coup in Niger. It was necessary to “put an immediate end to the unacceptable attack on the constitutional order [...],” sources in government circles said, adding that the legitimate president of the country was President Mohamed Bazoum. “Algeria faces a dilemma that is reflected in its attitude toward a possible ECOWAS intervention,” Hager Ali, a political scientist who researches authoritarian systems and the effects of military coups at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies, told DW.

In terms of foreign policy, she said, Tebboune continued to back the country’s traditionally non-aligned course, which keeps it at a distance from both Russia and the United States. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, however, was making it difficult to maintain this course, according to Ali.

That was because “the Russian attack has changed Algeria’s role: It has become an important Western energy supplier,” Ali told DW. Algeria’s main export partners, she said, are EU countries, along with the US and Canada. This situation has led to the state-owned oil and gas company Sonatrach achieving unprecedented export revenues of around $60 bn (54.7 bn euros) in 2022, according to the business information service Germany Trade and Invest (GTAI). “Implementing the principle of non-alignment under these circumstances, as other ECOWAS countries do, is difficult,” Ali said.

At the same time, agreeing to ECOWAS’s threatened intervention would strain relations with Russia. Although the new military government in Niger has not yet made its course regarding Moscow clear, the Russian flags sometimes seen at rallies in the country indicate at least a certain affinity with Moscow.

Algeria can ill afford a strained relationship with Russia, because its ties are close, Ali told DW. For a start, more than two-thirds of Algeria’s weapons come from Russia, she said. In addition, Russia is the Algerian military’s most important training partner.

“However, the decision against an ECOWAS intervention also carries the risk of strained relations with the West,” says Hager Ali. “The safest course for Algeria at the moment, therefore, is to condemn the junta but then also draw a line at participating in a major military operation.” The relationship with the West is further complicated by the fact that Algeria’s stance places it in at least relative proximity to governments that openly support the coup.

Two of Niger’s neighbors, Mali and Burkina Faso, have clearly sided with the organizers. The government of Guinea-Bissau has also declared its willingness to support them.

All three countries are under the rule of military governments that have come to power since 2021. In this respect, the democratic development of the Sahel region is also currently at stake.