Once the bird flies out of the cage...

Sridhar Vembu, the founder of Zoho Corporation, shared an interesting observation on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) on February 22. He stated that in the past, couples in joint families or large households had more children despite limited privacy, while today, even with greater privacy in nuclear families, people tend to have fewer children.

While the idea of a causal link between privacy and fertility rates is interesting, any significant association between the two is likely spurious. In the past, couples in joint families could share the physical burden of childcare and the costs of raising children, making it possible to manage more children. Although Vembu must be commended for raising the issue of low fertility rates in the country, the declines have been influenced more by rising female education, greater economic opportunities, and higher personal aspirations rather than the family structure.

Historically, women had more children due to limited opportunities outside of the traditional roles as wives and mothers. However, with increased female education and workforce participation, childbearing has become less of a priority for women. Research studies from around the world show strong inverse (or negative) associations between female education, economic opportunities, personal aspirations for themselves and their children, and fertility rate. Women seem increasingly inclined towards smaller families to avoid the physical and economic burdens of having more children and raising them successfully to adulthood.

According to the most recent data from the National Family Household Survey (NFHS) conducted in India in 2019-2021, the average number of children born to a woman during her reproductive years is 2.0, down from 3.4 in 1992-1993, when the first NFHS survey was conducted.

Kerala achieved a fertility rate of 2.0 children per woman some thirty years ago, and by 2019-2021, the rate had dropped to 1.8 children per woman. Even with such a low fertility rate, the total wanted fertility rate (assuming no unwanted births) in the state is lower than the actual fertility rate, although the difference between the two is small.

In demography, the replacement level fertility, the number of children needed for every woman to replace herself, is considered to be 2.1 children per woman. Fertility rates consistently below 2.1 can lead to shrinking total population size in the long run and ageing of the population in the region under consideration. In Western countries, fertility rates have been below 2.1 children per woman for decades, even in predominantly Catholic countries like Spain, Portugal, and Italy.

Extensive pronatalist policies by many Western governments to encourage women to have more children have failed to increase fertility rates to above replacement level. In Iran, ruled by an Islamic fundamentalist government since 1979, the fertility rate began declining in the 1980s and is now below replacement level, due to factors that spurred fertility declines in other parts of the world - female education, delayed marriage and childbearing, higher personal aspirations.

Recently, the chief ministers of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have urged women in their states to have more children citing concerns about an ageing population and upcoming population-based delimitation. However, the unwavering commitment of successive Andhra Pradesh governments to family planning over the last three decades enabled the state to achieve a fertility rate of 1.7 children per woman (NFHS 2019-2021 data). As Mayor of Chennai in 2000, Tamil Nadu's current Chief Minister MK Stalin received the JRD Tata Memorial Award from the Population Foundation of India for the best-performing district in population, reproductive health, and family planning.

Lessons from other countries reveal that once the fertility rate begins to decline due to changes in societal norms, it is challenging to reverse the trend. No matter how strong the incentives and appeals are, it is difficult to revert fertility levels to previous levels. Women will strive to have the number of children that they believe they can successfully bear and rear. It suffices to say that once the bird has flown out of the cage, it is highly unlikely that it can be enticed back in.

Padmavathi Srinivasan is an independent research consultant in demography/population sciences; K Srinivasan is a former director of International Institute of Population Sciences (IIPS) and recipient of the 2023 Laureate from the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP)