Preseidential Election: Could this be Egypt’s chance for change?

•  J HOLLEIS, MAHMOUD HUSSEIN

ISRAEL: The polls opened in Egypt on Sunday in a presidential election overshadowed by the war in neighboring Gaza and a serious domestic economic crisis. Voting will continue through Tuesday, with official results to be announced December 18. The vote will most likely see the 69-year-old incumbent Abdel Fattah el-Sissi winning a third term, which would be a first for the country of 113 million people.

Up until 2019, the constitution only allowed two presidential terms and el-Sissi was elected with no opposition to speak of with around 97% of the votes in 2014 and 2018. He then pushed for constitutional amendments that legitimize Egyptian presidents to stay for a third term, and extended the terms from four to six years. Meanwhile, Egypt’s National Elections Authority, NEA, said in a statement that the electoral process involving a total of four candidates had been fair and just. Last week the NEA also announced that Egyptians abroad had completed casting their votes.

However, in the run-up to the elections, observers and human rights organizations repeatedly accused el-Sissi of cracking down on promising opposition candidates. “Hisham Kassem is currently in prison on political charges and Ahmed Altantawy is facing charges while dozens of members of his campaign are being detained,” Timothy E. Kaldas, deputy director of the Washington-based Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, told DW. The expected reelection comes at a time when el-Sissi is unlikely to face much international criticism in light of the country’s role in the current war in Gaza.

Since the beginning of the war between Israel and Hamas, classified as a terrorist group by the US, EU, Germany and others, global attention has shifted from Egypt’s dire human rights record, its crackdown on the political opposition and the poor economic state to its role as reliable political partner in the region, mediator and access point for humanitarian goods for the Palestinian population.

This has not only boosted el-Sissi’s international reputation, but is likely to have a positive impact on the country’s finances.

“The European Commission announced up to 9 billion euros ($9.7 billion) in investments in Egypt while other reports indicate that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is considering as much as doubling the size of Egypt’s loan in response to the situation,” Kaldas said, adding that “this happens despite the fact that Egypt has largely failed to fulfill its reform commitments over the past year, preventing the IMF from completing a review and disbursing loan tranches.” The planned investments and loans are a welcome shot in the arm for a country that has been reeling from an economic crisis since 2022.

According to the Central Bank of Egypt, inflation was at 38% in October, while the Egyptian pound has lost half its value against the US dollar. Official estimates state that 30% of the population live in poverty. Foreign reserves, which are needed to pay back loans, are almost depleted. However, none of the experts DW spoke to, expect any major international backlash.

“In the past, the West has not been too critical of elections in Egypt either, and el-Sissi and the military have been regularly perceived in the West as the only actors who can prevent chaos in the country,” Christian Achrainer, a researcher at Denmark’s Roskilde University, who has extensively published on Egypt, told DW.