The Kamala campaign: Why Josh Shapiro would make such a difference for

Vice President Kamala Harris has one overriding weakness as a candidate for president — she is perceived as being to the left of Joe Biden. Harris has criticized U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, supported single-payer health care and even praised the “defund the police” movement.

More recently, opponents have blamed her for what they see as a too-porous southern border.

Harris will not win Electoral College swing states and the presidency unless she convinces voters that her administration will share the sort of centrist policies and leadership that were essential to the victories of Biden, Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. And an emphatic and persuasive remedy to that problem would be to pick Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania as her running mate.

Shapiro, who is unpopular with many progressives over energy policy, school choice and other issues, would send a signal that Harris is not captive to the left and that she puts experience ahead of ideology.

Choosing him would add an experienced governor from a swing state who could appeal to many

moderate Democrats, independents and some Nikki Haley voters on a multitude of key issues. He would provide balance to the ticket and underscore that there is a place for moderates in today’s Democratic Party.

For those who look at politics as a mosaic of identities, Shapiro would also reassure Jewish voters — long a key part of winning Democratic voter coalitions — at a time when many of them see hostility and antisemitism coming from some in the far left of the party. Now, some pundits and analysts of presidents and their running mates will wonder if adding an observant Jew to a ticket headed by a Black woman is a ticket to nowhere. But the elections of Obama and now the surge of Harris suggest that America is a lot more focused on party unity and stopping Donald Trump than on race and religion. Remember that Joe Lieberman was the first Jewish vice-presidential nominee, in 2000, and he deepened the heft, experience and integrity of the ticket led by Al Gore.

Pennsylvania, of course, is a critical battleground state and a must-win for the Harris ticket. With its 19 electoral votes toward a needed 270, the state has swung back and forth recently, going for Trump in 2016 by 44,000 votes and for Biden in 2020 by about 82,000 votes — razor-thin margins of victory that show that the state can be flipped easily with the right messengers and message.

While the history of governors helping to deliver their states is mixed, Shapiro has an appeal outside of geography — one recent poll found that 18 percent more Pennsylvania voters approve than disapprove of his job as governor — because he is capable of actually bringing together a broad coalition of voters.

He soundly defeated his Republican opponent for governor in 2022 by nearly 15 percentage points.

Shapiro believes in school choice, which runs counter to one of the Democrats’ biggest support groups — the teachers unions (though he ultimately vetoed a school voucher bill he had initially supported).

Randi Weingarten, the president of the American Federation of Teachers, is a fixture of the Democratic establishment, but her positions are unpopular with many other Americans — including those who believe that the Covid school shutdowns were dragged out unnecessarily. Despite the union’s opposition, school choice is supported by 71 percent of Americans, according to a 2023 poll by RealClear Opinion Research. Standing up to the unions by picking Shapiro would send a signal that Harris is not in their pocket — though, at the same time, it is also a likely reason he may not be selected.

The governor would be the highest-ranking Jewish official in U.S. history. He has supported Israel and has been strongly critical of the campus protests, blasting the antisemitism on display at many of those demonstrations. Arab American leaders like James Zogby have suggested he could “create a problem"

for Harris with some voters. His selection would be another push against the left wing of the Democratic Party that has taken a strong position against America’s ally. But about 3 percent of Americans are Jewish, and about 1 percent are Muslim, according to 2022 data from the Public Religion Research Institute; Jews have some of the highest percentages of voting, and only 2 percent consider Israel a top issue. I think Shapiro’s ideology, not his religion, is what creates the real push and pull over his potential nomination — his religion is being used as an excuse by those who want to keep a moderate off the ticket.

Independent voters overwhelmingly favor Israel over Hamas, as did 80 percent of Americans, according to a July Harvard Center for American Political Studies -Harris Poll, which I co-directed. While young people, who have the lowest propensity to vote, were split on the issue, older people supported Israel 93 percent to 7 percent, and they have the highest turnout. That suggests Shapiro’s religion and his position on Israel would be a net plus for a Harris-Shapiro ticket even if it alienated the pro-Palestinian left.

In Pennsylvania, Harris is under pressure on the issue of fracking from those who rely on the industry for their jobs. She is on tape calling for a complete ban and she is trying to walk those comments back, saying she has evolved on the issue. Shapiro has walked a fine but successful line on the issue, supporting local energy production. Picking him would lend credence to her new position that she really is for a more balanced approach to energy that includes fracking.

Is it realistic that the left-wing voters would abandon a Harris-Shapiro ticket in favor of Trump and JD Vance when the Democratic Party has consolidated around Harris? They would have zero power under Trump, so again, Shapiro is likely to help, not hurt, such a ticket regardless of the issues most important to progressives.

Harris has had a great run in the last couple of weeks but she is still one point behind Trump in the RealClearPolitics polling average and three points behind in my last poll. The easy polling lift from energizing women, Black Americans and young voters and consolidating the Democratic constituencies has now been deposited in the political bank. But the next few points, like improving her standing among white men, will be harder to come by.

The best path to overcoming the hurdle that the Harris campaign faces in erasing Trump’s small lead is by picking Shapiro, the only vice-presidential contender I see who can reassure the moderates who are not sold on Harris. And he would do so not with slick or phony messaging, but with what he has always done: embracing his moderate record and his faith, not apologizing for it, and thinking about what’s in the best interest of everyone, not one faction. His pick would be a genuine gesture that Harris is willing to listen to the voters in the vital center.

Penn was a pollster and an adviser to President Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton from 1995 to 2008. He is chairman of the Harris Poll and chief executive of Stagwell Inc.