Turkish Surprise: What led to Erdogan’s NATO U-turn?

By Sinem Ozdemir

WASHINGTON: Twice on the same day, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan managed to stun the West: First with an additional requirement for Sweden’s NATO membership and then with a surprise last-minute compromise. On Monday, NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced that Erdogan had agreed to forward Sweden’s bid to join the military alliance to the Turkish parliament “as soon as possible.”

Before Ankara’s confirmation was announced, Erdogan had made one last move that surprised everyone. At a news conference before leaving Istanbul for the NATO summit in Vilnius, he had raised another condition for Sweden’s NATO membership. The Turkish president had said that his country had been kept waiting at the gates of the European Union for more than 50 years, and had addressed Brussels, saying, “Pave the way for Turkey in the European Union, and then we will pave the way for Sweden, just as we paved the way for Finland.”

Puzzled by this move, Brussels rejected Erdogan’s demand, underlining that NATO and the EU are separate processes. However, a joint statement issued after the NATO agreement said Sweden would “actively support efforts to reinvigorate Turkey’s EU accession process, including modernisation of the EU-Turkey Customs Union and visa liberalization.”

Is Turkey turning its face to the West again? Although the pro-government media in Turkey portrayed Sweden’s support as a victory for Erdogan, experts say this is not a new achievement for Ankara, as Sweden has long been one of the countries in the EU that has been favourable towards Turkey’s membership. Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, the director of the German Marshall Fund’s office in Ankara, believes that Erdogan’s move can still be considered an important message.

“I think after the elections, Erdogan is seeking more positive relations with the US and Europe, and he wants to be accepted by them,” Unluhisarcikli said. “Take his words about paving the way into the EU, for instance; nothing will happen in this regard, and he knows that. But what he wants to say is, ‘Do not exclude me.’”

Another theory is Turkey, with record inflation rates and a rapidly depreciating lira, is shifting its policy of balance between Russia and the West in favor of the West mainly for economic reasons. Ankara could reach economic advantages by modernizing the EU-Turkey Customs Union. This modernization aims to expand the union to include agricultural products, services sectors, and government procurement in addition to industrial products. Turkish business also seeks to protect itself against the EU’s sophisticated trade agreements with third countries.

Negotiations about Ankara’s EU accession, which began in Brussels in 2005, have failed to make concrete progress. Especially in the aftermath of the attempted coup in July 2016, negotiations have come to a standstill as the anti-terror measures taken by Ankara have led to human rights violations.

Observers in Europe argue that for a significant revival in Turkey-EU relations with a perspective of membership, Turkey must first normalize its relations with the Council of Europe (CoE), an international organization founded to uphold human rights, democracy and the rule of law in Europe. It’s independent of the EU, but no country has ever joined the bloc without belonging to the Council of Europe first.