Turkish turnaround: Does Erdogan’s defeat signal hope diaspora?

SINEM OZDEMIR

The political landscape in Turkey experienced a significant shift as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) suffered a historic defeat in local elections on March 31.

The center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP) celebrated a resounding victory that echoed throughout the nation, as it secured wins in 21 smaller municipalities and claimed victory in 14 major cities, including the crucial centers of Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir.

The victory has revived hopes among the opposition, which was deeply disappointed by Erdogan’s reelection victory in last year’s general election. The streets were filled with people celebrating and cheering for the first time in a long time.

CHP leader Ozgur Ozel said in his victory speech that “young people who had packed their suitcases in their minds decided to wait for another election with this victory.”

Ozel’s acknowledgment of these young people in his speech before the enthusiastic crowd in the Turkish capital, Ankara, is not without reason. Turkey has recently experienced the largest wave of brain drain in its modern history, with young individuals disillusioned by 22 years of conservative governance opting to relocate to countries where they perceive greater economic and political stability. But could this victory, after so many years, be a glimmer of hope for these young people to return home? Ozgecan Ozeren, 35, who relocated to Germany — one of the most popular destinations for Turkish expats — three years ago, finds the election results encouraging but not sufficient.

Ozeren, who works as a marketing manager for a German company, explains that she moved with the aspiration of attaining a higher standard of living, achieving a better work-life balance, reducing stress and alleviating concerns about the future. She said the recent elections were something she had been hoping for over the past 22 years.

“Despite my relocation, I’ve always carried concerns for my loved ones who still reside in Turkey, given the challenging circumstances there. Consequently, the overwhelming sense of relief and hope I felt for my country was immense,” she said. Yet, Ozeren added that the elections didn’t significantly alter her plans regarding a potential return to her home country. “The impact of the last 22 years will undoubtedly take time to address and overcome.”

Esra Ogun, a technology specialist in the research and development department of a multinational company in Frankfurt, shares a similar sentiment. The 35-year-old, who has been living in Germany since 2014, reflected on her electoral experiences in Germany with disappointment. She said the celebrations among German-Turks after Erdogan’s victories have been more disheartening than what she witnessed in Turkey.

“The celebrations that lasted until midnight with honking horns after every election, the cheers we had to witness in front of the Turkish consulate while voting and our hopes of returning to Turkey fading away little by little...”

Although the recent elections have sparked a glimmer of hope for Ogun, she said the working environment in Germany is more suitable for her and that she has no plans to return to Turkey until retirement.

The growth of the Turkish diaspora in Germany in recent years and the atmosphere of solidarity are other important factors connecting Ogun to her current home.