Wagner in Africa: The impact of Prigozhin’s death

PHILIPP SANDNER

Russia’s influence in Africa is intertwined with the mercenary activities of the Wagner Group in various countries, particularly in West and Central Africa. Next to China, Russia has become the leading global player, exerting its influence on the continent through aid, economic development, trade and military cooperation. But following reports that Wagner’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, died in a plane crash in Russia — confirmed by Russian investigators on August 27 — many now wonder if military support from Russia in Africa will remain unchanged.

For Ryan Cummings, Director at Signal Risk, Centre for Strategies and International Studies, it seems that Wagner’s operations in Africa will “continue as they have been doing for the past few months or even years in certain contexts.”

Cummings told DW that the future of the mercenary group in Africa remains intact. “If you look at the structure of the Wagner group in countries such as the Central African Republic, Mali, Sudan and Libya, there is no immediate indication that there has been a compromise in the relation between the country commanders and the Putin administration.” Even though Prigozhin is no longer in the picture or commanding Wagner, Cummings stressed that they have continued their operations without significant disruption.

Cummings said he would be very surprised if Russia’s President Vladimir Putin were to take control of the Wagner Group. “If anything, there could be some leadership changes at the top of the movement, if that has not already occurred — there might be an assimilation of Wagner:”

In Niger, security analyst Alkasou Abdourahamane thinks that the impact of Prigozhin’s presumed death — whether it is linked to the Kremlin or if he died in a plane crash — will not be the same for the countries that work together with the Russian mercenaries, especially Mali, Central African Republic and Niger.

“For now, there is no evidence from a reliable source that shows the tentacles of a collaboration between the state and the groups,” Abdourahamane told DW.

The security analyst Raoufa’l Sani in Niger is of that view, that long before Prigozhin’s presumed death, the Wagner leader did not have the same force he had before. “Since his aborted attempt to take power in Moscow, the Russian authorities have ensured that they take over his main activities in the world,” Sani told DW. He thinks nothing will change and that the importance of Wager in Niger or the Sahel is a question of belief: “The opinion in these countries is that the military and therefore the Western presence has not produced the desired results.”

In an exclusive interview with DW, Fidele Gouandjika, an advisor to Central African Republic (CAR) President Faustin-Archange Touadera, said that bilateral relations between his country and Russia would remain the same. “We have a defense agreement with Russia, and the paramilitaries who are with us will continue their work as before. They will find another chief,” he told DW. “As for trade relations, we have a mining license, a brewery and a forestry license with the Russians. That will not change, even if Yevgeny Prigozhin is no longer there.”

However, not everyone shares this optimistic view: Since a comprehensive peace agreement was reached in CAR only in February 2019 after decades of civil war, the Wagner Group’s influence has extended even further. Wagner mercenaries have been in charge of protecting — and guiding — Touadera, whose advisors have long included a man with closer ties to Prigozhin.