AIADMK, estranged leaders fight for survival in Thevar belt: Observers

CHENNAI: Campaigning for the April 19 polls has entered the final leg in Tamil Nadu. But, in the midst of twists and turns in the political drama, whether the AIADMK will prove its mettle in the Thevar-dominated region in the state or would the estranged leaders - O Panneerselvam and TTV Dhinakaran - will have the last laugh is something being keenly watched.

The popularity of AIADMK, once known as “Thevar party,” in the Mukkulathor belt that is spread across 11 constituencies in central and southern TN has turned into an intriguing sub-plot for political observers. Constituencies, including Dindigul, Madurai, Theni, Ramanathapuram and Tenkasi are dominated by this group.

In the region once touted as its stronghold, the AIADMK is now fighting its arch rival DMK-led INDIA bloc and the BJP-led NDA in a three corner contest to prove its mettle and retain its core vote bank. Beyond this, it is an acid test for AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami, estranged AIADMK leader Panneerselvam of Maravar community and AMMK leader TTV Dhinakaran of Esa Nattu (Thanjai) Kallar.

Political observers said that the Salem strongman, who belongs to the Gounder community, is under compulsion to prove his leadership in the Thevar belt. It would be measured by his ability to arrest the erosion of the party’s core vote bank and not let the party slip to third position in the midst of an adverse political climate in the region. It was to appease the Thevar community that RB Udhayakumar was made Deputy Leader of the Opposition in place of Panneerselvam; a move that failed to convince the community members.

Meanwhile, it is a struggle for political survival and identity for foe-turned-friends Panneerselvam and Dhinakaran in Ramanathapuram and Theni constituencies respectively. Mukkulathor accounts for around 50 per cent of the total voters in these constituencies, while SCs account for a significant number of votes (around 15 per cent) and OBCs - Pillaimar, Chettiyar, Naddar and Vokkaliga Goundars - would account for the rest.

Similar trends prevail in Dindigul, Madurai, Sivaganga, Tenkasi, and Thanjavur constituencies.

While this is the scenario for AIADMK and its estranged leaders, DMK has its own vote bank in the belt. The community was once a backbone of the DMK, with former Supreme Court Judge S Rathinavel Pandian being its popular face. He was closely associated with the DMK in his young days. Before bidding adieu to politics, he served the party as district secretary of the undivided Tirunelveli district in early 1960. He was fielded in polls by the DMK twice. “The community was politically oriented since the early days of the Dravidian movement. In the DMK regime under M Karunanidhi, Rathinavel Pandian was appointed as the state public prosecutor of the Madras High Court and subsequently elevated him as Judge (in 1974). He was the first to adorn such a high position in the judiciary from the (denotified) community. This was a factor that developed a deep affiliation and liking for the DMK,” senior journalist and native of Tirunelveli district S Kumana Rajan said.

It was after the split of DMK that a section of the community shifted to MG Ramachandran’s AIADMK. He fielded Maya Thevar in the by-poll for the Dindigul Lok Sabha constituency and tasted the first victory in the electoral front.

“The election result raised doubts over loyalty of Thevars to the DMK leadership, resulting in migration of the vote base to the AIADMK. Still, the DMK has a strong and committed vote bank in Thevar community, besides other communities,” said P Harappa Thiyagarajan of Thevar Politburo.

The community further tasted political power and wielded enormous influence in the AIADMK party since early 1990. Late AIADMK supremo and former chief minister J Jayalalithaa’s close aide VK Sasikala was instrumental in keeping the vote bank intact with the party. However, it came to an abrupt end with the demise of Jayalalithaa and subsequent sentence of Sasikala in a disproportionate asset case.

Sasikala’s expulsion hits AIADMK base

Sasikala’s expulsion along with her nephew Dhinakaran did not go down well among the community. The popularity of the party further took a hit following the expulsion of Panneerselvam and his supporters over the dual leadership tussle in June 2022.

Now, the AIADMK is caught in a crossroad and it’s trying hard to keep its vote bank intact. Both Dhinakaran and OPS are eyeing on the community vote bank and aim to push the AIADMK to the third position to dismiss Palaniswami as not a force to reckon with in the southern districts.

They were reviving their old connections and playing victim cards. “What wrong did I do?” Panneerselvam asked the people with folded hands and said that he reached out to the community, seeking justice and to teach a lesson to “betrayers” (EPS) in the election.

In Theni, Dhinakaran stuck to the same theme and said that he returned to the constituency after 14 years. Being once a blue-eyed boy of Jayalalithaa, he was fielded in Periyakulam constituency (now Theni) in 1999 and emerged victorious. He contested unsuccessfully against Congress candidate JM Aaroon Rasheed in the following LS polls in 2004, severing his connection with the constituency. Banking on his popularity and good work in the constituency as the MP in 1999-2004, Dhinakaran is making a calculative move to cash on his work as MP to garner the support of the community voters and other common voters.

Harappa said the voters were not impressed with OPS and questioning what he did for the community despite enjoying CM, deputy CM posts all these years?

“He and OPS are focusing more on Thevar votes and fail to understand that the DMK has significant and committed voters in the community. They are playing sympathy cards to woo them. But, we are working at micro-level to stop them. Our first aim is to retain our vote share and reduce them to below 2 lakh votes,” said a AIADMK functionary of Usilampatti Assembly segment in Theni constituency.

He, however, said that the dearth of strong leaders like the ones in Kongu belt is their weakness in countering Dhinakaran and OPS. However, the party structure and committed vote bank would help them to come unscathed in the tough fight. “We don’t want to end up as third and are also determined to put an end to their political lives,” said another AIADMK functionary. “We will ensure that his losing streak will continue,” he added.

Now or never for Dhinakaran

“It is now or never for Dhinakaran,” said Ajith Kumar, a resident of Sakkampatti village in Theni constituency, while a group of villagers in A Pothampatti said the AIADMK and the ousted AIADMK leaders lost their credibility due to the internal fight for their personal gains.

“Majority of the people in the village vote for MGR’s two leaves. But, things have been changing since Jayalalithaa’s death and people are moving to either the BJP or the DMK. For us, two leaves matters and we will continue to vote for it,” said 73 year-old Susai of Uthamapalayam.

Usilampatti DMK town secretary SOR Thangapandian said that they were clear in what they were doing. “The fight is between AIADMK and Dhinakaran for the second position. It is a crucial poll for their political survival and they are focusing on defeating each other. So, we are working on our plan to increase the victory margin,” he said.

Meanwhile, OPS supporter A Subburathinam said that there is an overwhelming response for their leader’s campaign in the constituency, particularly among the Maravars and they were confident of a comfortable victory. “We are confident that the people here will teach a lesson to EPS and his camp in this election and show them their place,” said the former MLA and added that many of voters welcomed the decision to contest as Independent candidate to prove the might of the community.