Minorities’ sway on 10 LS seats

CHENNAI: On April 19, choose wisely and exercise your rights for a better future. It was a subtle, yet clear and loud, message delivered from the altar in one of the churches in the state capital on Easter Sunday. Similar messages reverberated with different tone and tenor from Churches from different parts of the state. Though the politically loaded message subterfuge with religious preaching among the Christians, the Muslims traditionally vote against the BJP.

It is an open secret that the majority of the two religious minorities, accounting for around 18 per cent of the 6.23 crore electorates in the state, prefer to vote against the political party or an alliance that pushes the idea of hyper Hindutva or oneness. They would play a decisive role in determining the outcome of the elections in nearly 10 Lok Sabha constituencies in the state.

“We have done a study based on the voters list ahead of the Assembly polls in 2021 and found nearly 70 lakh Muslim voters in 234 constituencies. When it comes to Parliament constituencies, Ramanathapuram and Vellore have more than 4 lakh Muslim voters. We also found more than six to seven Parliamentary Constituencies with significant numbers,” said state secretary of Tamil Nadu Muslim Munnetra Kazhagam (TMMK) Eajaz Ahmeed.

The present political climate, according to political observers, gives an edge to the India National Developmental Alliance (INDIA) bloc, which opposes hyper nationalism of the BJP and its ideological parent RSS to safeguard secularism, in the state. For instance, the election for the Vellore constituency in 2019 proved this beyond doubt. After rescinding the polls for the constituency along with 38 seats in the state citing seizure of Rs 11.48 crore from a close aide of DMK candidate Kathir Anand and “systematic design to influence voters,” the EC held the polls on August 5. The campaign mirrored all the flavors of a by-poll as the ministers of the AIADMK regime, which was heading the NDA then, campaigned for AC Shanmugham fielded in BJP’s Lotus symbol. Shanmugam spirited campaign by stating that a Cabinet berth is awaiting him in the second term of Narendra Modi regime and promised to bring major projects to the constituency. However, the Muslim voters polled heavily in favor of the DMK candidate to withstand the onslaught of the power campaign of the ruling party at the state and Center. On the counting day, Shanmugham was leading for the first couple of rounds. However, the trend reversed gradually as Kathir Anand narrowed down the margin and won the seat with a margin of little over 8,000 votes as against Shanmugam, who netted 4.77 lakh votes. “If not Muslim voters, Kathir Anand would have lost the polls badly in 2019,” said former AIADMK district secretary, preferring anonymity.

Senior journalist and political critic Tharasu Shyam opined that the minorities always vote against the BJP and its allies. This is the pattern at the national level and it will continue in TN too. The 11th hour push for Citizenship (Amendment) Act 2019 has further flared up the strong dislike and anger against the BJP-led NDA, while the AIADMK-led front would also face the music for their role in bringing in the controversial Act.

“The DMK front by all chance is going to be the beneficiary like the 2019 polls,” said Shyam and noted that both Christian and Muslim voters would account for nearly one crore of the total voters. Their presence is significant in several constituencies.

“Muslims traditionally vote for the DMK, right since Quaid-E-Milleth’s days. But, they stopped voting en masse after Muslim political outfits came into existence. Though AIADMK has SDPI, an outfit of a radical movement, the Muslim community will distance themselves from such an outfit,” political observer Maalan Narayanan said. He, however, hinted that the DMK would attract a significant number of the Muslim voters since IUML and MMK were part of the INDIA bloc.

In the 2014 polls, there was a shift in the voting pattern as a section of the Muslim voters preferred the AIADMK after Jayalalithaa apologised for her electoral ties with the BJP. She called it a blunder and assured that she would never repeat it and positioned herself against Narendra Modi by pitching the popular slogan “Modi or Lady.”

In that election, the AIADMK secured a little over 37 per cent in the multi-corner contest and emerged victorious in 37 constituencies, excluding Dharmapuri and Kanniyakumari. However, the trend changed in 2019 when the AIADMK aligned with the BJP. It ended up losing 36 seats and the voting percentage dropped by 17 per cent from 37 per cent in 2014. On the other hand, the DMK front secured 53.15 per cent of votes and won all the seats except the Theni constituency. “The DMK front, in all likelihood, will better its performance in this election,” said Shyam.

Admitting that the CAA would haunt AIADMK as they have lost the goodwill among the minorities after 10 of its members in the Rajya Sabha voted in favor the Bill in 2019, senior AIADMK leader A Anwhar Raajhaa, who was one among the 10 said, “Muslim voters will have a say in 20 constituencies. We are reaching out to them to seek their support and we are confident of getting at least 50 pc of their votes. But, it is difficult to secure the votes of Christians.”

Prof MH Jawahirullah, leader of Manithaneya Makkal Katchi, said this election is crucial, particularly to minorities. If the BJP returns to power, it poses a serious threat to the democratic and secular fabric of the nation. “The minorities are well aware about it. So, they will vote in large numbers in favor of our alliance (INDIA bloc) to protect the nation and its pluralism,” he added.