Middling mind: What is Russia’s role in the Niger coup?

At demonstrations in support of Niger’s coup, several people were seen waving Russian flags. “Long live Putin,” protesters chanted, as well as “Down with France,” Niger’s former colonial ruler. These signs of pro-Russian sentiment, and a Ukraine official’s widely-reported accusation that Russia was behind Niger’s military takeover, have helped fuel speculation that Russia organized the coup on July 26. But no credible commentator has come out saying Russia is directly responsible for the toppling of Mohamed Bazoum, Niger’s democratically elected president.

“I think what happened, and what continues to happen in Niger, was not instigated by Russia or by Wagner,” US top envoy Antony Blinken said in an interview with the BBC on Tuesday. The Wagner Group, the notorious paramilitary group funded by the Russian state, is deeply embedded in several African states, primarily Central Africa Republic, Sudan, Mali and Libya. While Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin welcomed Niger’s coup, the group also hasn’t claimed involvement. “There really isn’t a lot of evidence that Russia was behind the coup,” Washington-based Wagner expert Elena Pokalova told DW. Instead, it appears the trigger for the coup was personal ambition. Bazoum had wanted to replace General Abdourahamane Tchiani, the head of the elite Presidential Guard. But after deposing his boss, Tchiani has now proclaimed himself the head of the new military junta.

While there is no concrete proof that Wagner mercenaries are already in the country, Pokalova said she believes Niger is “important enough” for Russian President Vladimir Putin that the Kremlin would back sending fighters there.

“I don’t think that Prigozhin is going to have trouble assembling around 1,000 to 2,000 people,” she said. “This is exactly the kind of win Mr. Putin needs right now, as he is not achieving his objectives in Ukraine.” Like many other analysts, Pokalova warned that if Niger contracts Wagner, the uranium-rich nation could see more instability, human rights violations, authoritarianism and the suppression of democratic protests.

It’s well known that Russia runs sophisticated digital disinformation campaigns in Africa, including in Niger, a key Western ally and home to large US and French bases — although since the coup, junta leaders have revoked military cooperation agreements with France. Campaigns typically agitate against France and the United States, accusing them of colonialism and advocating for a broader revolution across the Sahel, a belt of semiarid land stretching across Africa just below the Sahara Desert.

According to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, a US Department of Defense institution, pro-Russia Telegram channels suggested Niger as a future target following the Burkina Faso coup in 2022.

“Disinformation networks connected to the Wagner Group, furthermore, have twice sought to spark rumors of a coup in Niger, including through what appears to have been a carefully orchestrated online scheme coinciding with a trip abroad by President Bazoum in February 2023,” said a report in late July. But while Western intelligence is examining whether Russia launched targeted campaigns in the run-up to the coup, “no evidence has been found so far,” wrote Spain’s El Pais newspaper, citing an intelligence officer from a European country.