Bullet train will need 100 trips daily to be viable: Study

The report, titled, “Dedicated High Speed Railway (HSR) Networks in India: Issues in Development,” states that if the Railways set the ticket price at Rs 1,500 for 300-km drive per person fifteen years after the operation, it will have to ferry between 88,000 and 110,000 passengers every day to ensure that it repays the loans with interest on time. 

Japan has offered a concessional loan of Rs 97,636 crore to fund about 80 per cent of the project cost with a repayment period of 50 years beginning from the 16th year of operation at an interest rate of 0.1 per cent. 

For the remaining 20 per cent loan, the authors assume 8 per cent average rate of interest (on Rs 20,000 crore to be funded by Centre). The paper has been jointly authored by faculty members G Raghuram, professor of the institute’s Public Systems Group, and Prashanth Udayakumar.

“So if the Railways earn Rs 100 revenue, Rs 20 or Rs 40 will go for maintenance, and remaining surplus money will go for cash payment of loan with interest. Now, to cover the loan with operating cost in two scenarios, we consider passengers travelling an average 300 kilometres. In this case, we will need 88,000118,000 passengers respectively for both the scenarios,” Raghuram said. 

“Typically one train carries 800 passengers, so to carry 88,000 passengers daily, you will need to take a total 100 trips, or 50 trips each way. So, we need three trains every hour in each direction,” he said.

As per the paper, “there are many positive benefits and externalities of the HSR which would be useful in India’s overall aspirational development.”