Uncertainty in the time of isolation

In an address to the nation that noted the escalating spread of the virus and spoke of the dangers of relaxing the restrictions, Prime Minister Narendra Modi extended the lockdown to May 3, by a few days more than some State governments either wanted or have already imposed. The unfounded gossip about the easing of restrictions was largely based on the views of some Cabinet ministers – particularly those who held economic portfolios, who were worried that continuing with a total lockdown would further damage an already severely ailing economy. The Prime Minister himself appeared to hint at relaxation with his ‘jaan bhi, jahan bhi’ remark, which was interpreted by some as a statement implying that a balance would be struck between preserving lives and resuming some forms of economic activity.

While extending the lockdown, Modi opened a window – in truth only a tiny chink – that could let in some form of relaxation on movement and economic activity. Perhaps, with an eye on the rabi harvest, which is getting under way, the Prime Minister said that a review would be made of the situation after April 20. But the promise of relaxation comes with two provisos. First, it will be limited to areas that have a good record – in other words, those parts that don’t register spikes in numbers and have succeeded in containing hotspots. Second, and this is the sting in the tail, this is on condition of rules strictly being followed. “If the rules of lockdown are broken and the virus comes back, all the relaxations will be rescinded,” Modi warned. “Don’t be careless, and don’t let others be careless either.”

Such a plain-speaking language may be necessary for a country in which it has been traditionally difficult to enforce discipline. But having adopted a strategy of containment through a slew of strict measures – which Modi held was responsible for India’s relatively good record on the coronavirus front compared to most other big nations – the big question is: how long can this continue for? Some models suggest that the coronavirus peak in India will happen well after the beginning of May. These models may be far from accurate, but the truth is that we don’t know enough about the coronavirus at this moment to make any accurate projections.

It is possible that the heat with the onset of summer may slow the spread, but we don’t know by how much. It is possible that the infection begins to have more benign forms, but we don’t know this for certain either. There is cause for both hope and despair, but the bald truth is that the basis for both are imponderables. Perhaps, the only way is to embrace the uncertainty. All in all, we will have a better sense of where we are and what we should do only at the beginning of May.