Editorial: The frenemy at the gates

Chennai

Was China’s act of aggression an entirely localised Army-level event, that is a result of some issue about or reluctance to institute the de-escalation plan? Since the clash was fought with sticks and stones rather than modern weaponry, there is a likelihood that it had something to do with the withdrawal agreement. But at the same time, it is impossible to rule out that this was a chapter in a larger story.

It has come at a time when a beleaguered Beijing is under severe international scrutiny for its failure to report the true dimensions of its COVID-19 problem in Wuhan, its place of origin. There are also suggestions of serious internal pressures on President Xi Jinping, who is dealing with a broken economy, a severe spike in unemployment, and growing voices within the Communist party and outside against his one-man rule. It may be no coincidence that this clash with China has occurred at a time when Beijing is trying to stamp its authority on Hong Kong, making aggressive moves in the South China sea and using abrasive language when dealing with Taiwan and Australia. Raising the bogey of a foreign threat is a time-worn method of deflecting attention from the problems at home.

Not a single bullet has been fired at the Sino-Indian border for the last 40 years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said three years ago. Modi and Xi have met more than a dozen times since the former was sworn in as PM in 2014 and the two countries have since signed several agreements and protocols. The big question is what this incident – which India is unlikely to take lying down – has in store for the China-India relationship going forward. While they must continue to talk at the ministerial level to ensure that another clash does not occur, it will be no surprise if New Delhi feels the time has come to recalibrate ties with Beijing.

It is not clear whether such a move will hurt China, but some form of economic retaliation may be in the offing. Chinese goods flood Indian markets and with a worrying trade deficit of over $50 billion, it is in India’s long-term interests to reduce the level of economic dependency on China. The costs paid by some others, both trading partners and loan recipients, should not be lost on New Delhi. While it is important to keep the peace and not allow hotheads on either side to escalate matters further, there is no room for blind trust or complacency. The sense of security we had over our borders with China has been rudely punctured. The Galwan Valley killing is a stark reminder it was always false.