All eyes on Uttar Pradesh

Add the Assembly seats in the other four states Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa and they make up only less than two thirds of that to the giant in the electoral room Uttar Pradesh. The contest in Uttar Pradesh has a national importance for at least four reasons. First, with its 80 Lok Sabha seats, it contributes about 15 per cent of the total weight of the Lok Sabha. Second, it is the very heart of the Hindi heartland, a State that arguably will reflect how the others in this region may vote. Then, it is home to the core of the BJP’s Hindutva agenda, fashioned around Ram Temple in Ayodhya.

To top it all, the man responsible for helming the election is no less than Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, Yogi Adityanath, who many regard as a possible successor to the Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Given all of this, the stakes in Uttar Pradesh for the BJP have never been higher. This time the BJP faces a fractured opposition with the SP, the BSP and the Congress deciding to go their own ways. But despite such disunity, the SP has managed to emerge at the cost of the BSP, whose political fortunes are ebbing, and the Congress, which is in danger of eclipse as a strong contender, with the support of some minor players.

The manner in which the BJP has ratcheted up the sectarian rhetoric, reflected in Adityanath’s inexcusable and divisive statement that 80 per cent of the people were with him and only the remaining 20 per cent, who are against the Ram Temple and who sympathise with terrorists are opposed. Adityanath may put any spin he wants to when interpreting what he said, but no one is in any doubt that he was only flaunting his communal arithmetic. While the SP has closed the gap on the BJP, the ruling party will be difficult to beat. In UP, the BJP has consistently polled about 40 per cent of votes in the three elections since 2014, and opinion polls suggest it may garner a similar percentage this time around.

Whether and by how much the recent defections away from the BJP particularly of Swami Prasad Maurya in UP and Michael Lobo in Goa will influence the election is anybody’s guess. Some believe that pre-poll defections suggest which way the political wind is blowing, but this has been proven wrong more than once. The spate of defections to the BJP before the West Bengal Assembly election did not prevent it from being roundly defeated.

While Uttarakhand is likely to remain a BJP bastion, the battles in Goa and Punjab (where the BJP-Amarinder Singh partnership seems doomed from the start) are politically interesting. How well the AAP, which did stunningly in the Chandigarh local body polls, will do in Punjab is well worth watching. In Goa, the contest is likely to be very close, as it has been in the past. If the BJP does get past the post, it will be thanks, and in no small measure, to the division in the anti-incumbency vote between the Congress and AAP.