Vote share changes making all the difference in 2022 Assembly polls

Dramatic and often drastic changes in vote shares seem to be having a significant impact on the latest round of Assembly elections that commence on February 10.

This was revealed by the final results of the opinion poll conducted by CVoter-ABP News released on Monday evening.

While this seems to have made a decisive impact in Punjab, it doesn’t seem so in Uttar Pradesh while Uttarakhand and Goa seem headed for hung assemblies if the vote share and seat projections prove to be true on March 10 when election results are announced.

In Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party’s vote share is projected to rise by 16.1 per cent while that of the Congress is projected to fall by 8.5 per cent and that of the Akali Dal alliance by 5 per cent.

This perhaps explains why the AAP is now projected to touch the magic majority mark while the Congress could see a crash in the number of seats won with the Akali-led alliance further behind.

In Uttar Pradesh, the SP-led alliance vote share is projected to increase dramatically by 11.4 per cent while that of the BJP-led alliance is projected to lose vote share marginally by 0.2 per cent. But since the BJP still leads by 6.2 per cent in vote share, it is projected to win a simple majority.

In Uttarakhand, the BJP vote share has fallen by 3.9 per cent while that of Congress has improved by 7.1 per cent. Yet, at 42.6 per cent, the BJP is 2 per cent ahead of the Congress.

No wonder, the result is too close to call. Finally in Goa, the AAP is seeing a dramatic 17.7 per cent upswing in vote share to 24 per cent, slightly more than the Congress. The BJP is set to lose 2.5 per cent vote share to 30 per cent this time. This clearly points towards a fractured mandate, with the Congress being the big loser in this round.

All this if the results to be announced on March 10 match the CVoter-ABP News projections.