Cement volumes to grow 7-8 pc in FY25, top 5 firms to solidify market share

NEW DELHI: Driven by the sustained healthy demand from the infrastructure and housing sectors, cement volumes in the country are projected to rise by a healthy 7-8 per cent (year-on-year) in the current fiscal (FY25), a report showed on Thursday.

The government's focus on infrastructure projects, sanction of additional houses under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY), and the industrial capex is expected to meaningfully improve cement volume offtake in the second half of this fiscal, according to the report by ICRA.

The capacity addition in the cement industry is estimated at 63-70 million metric tonnes (MT) during FY2025-FY2026, of which around 33-35 million MT will be added in FY2025 (FY2024: 32 million MT), supported by healthy demand prospects.

The market share of the top five cement companies is likely to increase to 58-59 per cent by March 2026, from 54 per cent as of March this year, the report said.

While the cement prices are projected to largely sustain at previous-year levels, "some softening of cost-side pressures - primarily power and fuel costs along with an increasing focus on green power - are likely to result in an improvement in OPBITDA/MT by 1-3 per cent YoY to Rs 975-1,000/MT," explained Anupama Reddy, VP and Co-Group Head, Corporate Ratings, ICRA.

The green power is estimated to account for 40-42 per cent of the total power mix by March 2025, compared to around 35 per cent as of March 2023, for the cement companies.

The major cement players in the country aim to reduce their emissions by 15-17 per cent over the next 8-10 years by increasing the share of blended cement, which uses less clinker and consequently less fuel, boosting the share of green power consumption through a mix of solar, wind and waste heat recovery system (WHRS) capacities.

"ICRA estimates the capacity addition in the cement industry at 63-70 million MT during FY2025-FY2026, of which around 33-35 million MT will be added in FY2025 (FY2024: 32 million MT), supported by healthy demand prospects," said Reddy.

The eastern and southern regions are forecast to lead the expansion.

The capacity utilisation is expected to rise to 71 per cent in FY2025 from 70 per cent in FY2024, backed by higher cement volumes. However, the utilisation remains moderate, on an expanded base, Reddy added.

While organic growth is expected to continue in the medium term, cement companies are also preferring the inorganic route to boost capacities rapidly.