Supply adjustments loom to meet global oil demand in long-term

NEW ELHI: A weak global oil demand is weighing on the prices of crude oil and in the long-term, there could be supply adjustments to meet the demand but the appetite for additional volumes will mainly be driven by price stability, a report said on Thursday.

This is predominantly due to economic slowdown worries in both China and the US, mainly on account of weakening industrial production and manufacturing growth.

There is a looming supply glut and long-term demographic shifts across the globe, according to the ‘Global Crude Oil-World Energy Outlook’ report by Ventura Securities.

As per the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), world oil demand will be around 104.30 million barrels per day (bpd) next year. The demand in 2024 is expected to be 103.10 million bpd.

India’s crude oil imports declined by 10 per cent month-on-month to 4.24 million barrels per day in October, according to energy cargo tracker Vortexa. In September, the OPEC+ group (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman) agreed on voluntary output cuts from December over 12 months.

In the long-term, "supply or the output decisions may reign, basis price, besides demand. Also, price direction is dependent on the estimates of the pace of the transition to alternative energy sources", said the report.

The silver lining to the bearish demand forecast is that the Chinese government’s monetary stimulus measures could result in higher petroleum consumption in 2025.

"If the global market witnesses the low oil inventory levels and the continued geo-political conflicts, then there could be a crude oil premium with the possible oil supply disruptions,” the report noted.

Monetary policy moves (interest rate cuts) could also spark some cautious optimism about economic growth and an increase in energy demand. Similarly, refinery capacity additions in non-OECD countries – mostly in China and the Middle East – are also expected to contribute to oil demand growth, according to the report.

"These, in turn, could lead to significant uncertainty and volatility in oil markets. However, a report from the World Bank mentions that the oil surplus would be large enough to limit the price effects of an even wider conflict in the Middle East," the report noted.

Oil prices rose more than 2 per cent on Wednesday. Brent crude futures gained $1.41, or 2 per cent, to $72.53 a barrel by 1236 GMT.