Maharashtra boost for BJP, Jharkhand gives opposition something to cheer

NEW DELHI: Maharashtra powered the opposition's sprightly performance in the Lok Sabha polls but the BJP-led coalition's decimation of the INDIA bloc in the assembly polls will put an end to any murmur about the ruling party's popular sway, coming as it does on the back of its come-from-behind win in Haryana.

The opposition, especially regional parties, though will draw some heart from the JMM-led alliance's robust win in Jharkhand over the BJP-led coalition, which made its Hindutva plank, including alleged infiltration, the engine of its campaign.

The contrasting results, according to political watchers, in the east and the west highlight the influence of local narrative and regional leadership as well as the appeal of welfare schemes, as incumbent parties in both states made cash-transfer programmes aimed at women a key plank of their agenda.

However, it is the stunning victory of the BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP alliance in Maharashtra, one of the most politically prized states, which was the headline of the day.

The alliance either won or was leading in 229 seats in the 288-member assembly, an unprecedented feat in the western state if the trend holds true.

The icing on the cake, as an organisation leader from the BJP said, was that the results dealt a crippling blow to veteran leader Sharad Pawar, seen as the main brain behind the coalition against the ruling party, and Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Uddhav Thackeray, a longtime ally-turned-bitter foe.

Both regional satraps portrayed the leaders of their respective party's breakaway groups, recognised as official units by the Election Commission, as "betrayers" and framed their contest around the issue. People have now also endorsed Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and his deputy Ajit Pawar of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) as the real heirs.

The verdict has also deepened the doubts about the Congress' ability to marshal an effective opposition against the BJP after its Lok Sabha poll performance put wind in its sails. It has plunged to its worst ever performance in Maharashtra, months after winning the most seats in the state in the national elections.

It was the largest Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) partner, and its win and lead tally of merely 16 seats will not fetch it the status of even the main opposition party.

It suffered a big loss in the Haryana assembly polls in October, months after putting up an impressive performance in the state in the national elections.

The INDIA bloc's win in Jharkhand is seen as a popular endorsement of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) president and Chief Minister Hemant Soren, with the Congress playing the role of a junior partner.

"The results clearly establish that voters have rejected the opposition's 'save-the-Constitution' narrative, which was influential in the Lok Sabha polls in several states, including Maharashtra and Haryana. Our ideological and development planks have prevailed," the BJP leader said.

With the BJP alone winning or leading in 132 seats in the western state where the majority mark is 145, there is a strong chatter within the party that it may finally have its own chief minister in place of Shinde, who can be given any other key role. Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis is being seen as a key contender for the top chair.

BJP sources said the leadership would have to analyse what went wrong in Jharkhand but noted that there was a realisation about the weakening influence of its local leadership, including state president Babulal Marandi, and the alternatives deployed by the party could not dent Soren's social coalition.

The BJP's share in the state at nearly 33 per cent is a little more than the over 31 per cent it had received in 2014, the last time it came to power there, but the opposition votes have consolidated, a party leader added.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi was at the centre of the Mahayuti campaign in Maharashtra, emphasising on its development and welfare planks, coupled with his call for "ek hain to safe hain" -- a slogan panned by the opposition as divisive but projected by the ruling alliance as a promotion of unity among voters against the "divisive" agenda of rivals.

His reaction to the victory in Maharashtra as one for development and good governance, and emphasis that "united we will soar even higher" made it amply clear that the party would follow this tack in the coming elections as well.

In Jharkhand, however, his appeal did not prove adequate to stop the JMM-led alliance, which included the Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Left, from notching an unprecedented second straight term. The coalition either won or was leading in 57 of the 81 seats.

The governing alliance's win in the two states, political watchers said, would keep welfarism at the centre of the agenda in state elections next year, starting from Delhi where polls are due in February.

AAP leader and former chief minister Arvind Kejriwal has made free electricity and cash transfer the nub of his agenda, and the BJP is likely to come up with its mode of welfarism, coupled with its pet development and ideological planks, to end the regional party's uninterrupted reign of over a decade.

The nationwide bypolls in 48 assembly and two Lok Sabha seats have gone mostly in the favour of the ruling alliances in their respective states, as is often the case.

Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath will feel boosted after the BJP-led appeared on course to win seven of the nine assembly seats.