MP polls: Congress, BJP face protests from within

BHOPAL: In the binary politics of Madhya Pradesh dominated by the BJP and Congress, the ‘Muslim vote factor’ may be insignificant unlike Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, but the minority vote may prove crucial in at least 22 seats in the event of a neck-and-neck contest in the assembly polls.

According to Mohammed Mahir, convenor of Madhya Pradesh Muslim Vikas Parishad, the Congress vote share in the 2018 polls went up by least 3-4 per cent enabling it to narrowly surge ahead of BJP. He said MP Congress chief Kamal Nath had said in 2018 that the party could form a government if 90 per cent of minority votes are polled in the party’s favour. “On Nath’s appeal, minority votes were polled for Congress and the result was 10-12 more seats being added to the party’ kitty which the party had failed to win in 2008 and 2013,” he said.

Notably, the vote share of the BJP (41.02 per cent) was slightly higher than the Congress (40.89 per cent) in the previous polls even though Congress had emerged as the single largest party winning 114 out of 230 seats, restricting the BJP to 109. The Congress subsequently formed a coalition government with the support of MLAs from the SP and BSP and Independents. The government, however, collapsed after 15 months due to defection by Congress MLAs.

A two-party system prevails in Madhya Pradesh with the balance tilted in favour of majoritarian, Mahir said. “Whenever voters get angry with the BJP, they elect a Congress government and vice-versa. Muslim population in Madhya Pradesh is 7 per cent according to the 2011 Census which might be 9-10 per cent now. The Muslim vote is effective in 47 assembly seats while they are a deciding factor in 22 segments,” he claimed. According to Mahir, these 47 seats have Muslim voters between 5,000 to 15,000, while their number ranges from 15,000 to 35,000 in 22 assembly segments. “This means Muslim voters are a deciding factor in 22 seats. These seats include three segments from Bhopal, two in Indore, Burhanpur, Jaora and Jabalpur among others,” he added.

Mahir claimed the traditional Congress vote (which also includes non-Muslims) is not getting transferred to their candidates and it is the party’s responsibility to take such electors to the booths to ensure the victory of minority candidates.