Euro 2024: Qualification scenarios for Round of 16 as event goes into final matchweek

MUNICH: With the stage set for the final set of group matches in UEFA Euro 2024, the Round of 16 is taking shape with the overall outcome set to be clear after the last round of matches, which will end on Thursday (June 27). The top two in each of the six groups of the UEFA European Championship along with the four best third-placed teams advanced to the Round of 16, which will start on June 29.

Hosts Germany, Switzerland, Spain, and Portugal have already clinched their places in the Round of 16 and the entire line-up will be clear only at the end of the final round of group matches, according to information from UEFA Euro 2024.

Here's a look at the permutations going into the final round of matches:

Group A

Germany are currently on top with seven points from two wins and a draw while Switzerland are second with five points from one win and two draws.

Germany are through to the round of 16 as group winners.

Switzerland are through to the round of 16 as group runners-up.

Hungary have finished third but are not yet through or eliminated.

Scotland are eliminated in fourth place.

Group B

Spain are through to the round of 16 as group winners.

Italy will be through to the Round of 16 as group runners-up if they avoid defeat against Croatia. Italy will be unable to reach the Round of 16 if they lose and Albania beat Spain.

Albania will be through to the Round of 16 as group runners-up if they beat Spain and Croatia beat Italy providing Albania finish ahead of Croatia on overall goal difference or then overall goals scored, or then disciplinary points, or then European Qualifiers rankings. Albania will be unable to reach the Round of 16 if they lose, or if they draw and Croatia beat Italy.

Croatia will be through to the Round of 16 as group runners-up if they beat Italy and Albania do not beat Spain (if Albania also win, Croatia and Albania will be split for second and third place by the above criteria). Croatia will be unable to reach the Round of 16 if they lose, or if they draw and Albania avoid defeat.

Group C

England will be through to the Round of 16 on Monday night, at least as the best third-placed team, if Albania do not beat Spain in Group B. England will be through to the Round of 16 if they avoid defeat against Slovenia or Denmark do not beat or Serbia. England will win the group if they beat Slovenia or England draw and Denmark do not win. If England draw and Denmark win, they will be split for first and second place on overall goal difference, then overall goals scored, then disciplinary points, then European Qualifiers rankings. England cannot finish lower than third.

Denmark will be through to the round of 16 if they beat Serbia. If Denmark and Slovenia both draw, they will be split for second and third place by the criteria described above, similarly first and second place if Denmark and Slovenia both win (or Denmark and England, if Denmark win and England draw), or third and fourth place if Denmark and Slovenia both lose. Denmark will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose and Slovenia avoid defeat.

Slovenia will be through to the Round of 16 if they beat England. Slovenia will win the group if they win and Denmark do not. If Slovenia and Denmark both win, they will be split for first and second place by the criteria described above, similarly, second and third place if they both draw, or third and fourth place if they both lose, or Slovenia and Serbia for third or fourth place if Slovenia lose and Serbia draw.

Serbia will be through to the Round of 16 if they beat Denmark and Slovenia do not beat England (if Serbia and Slovenia win, Serbia will be third behind England on head-to-head record). If Serbia draw and Slovenia lose they will be split for third and fourth place by the criteria described above. Serbia will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose, or if they draw and Slovenia avoid defeat.

Group D

The Netherlands will be through to the Round of 16, at least as the best third-placed team, if Albania do not beat Spain in Group B. Netherlands will be through to Round of 16 (in the top two) if they avoid defeat against Austria. The Netherlands will win the group if they win and France do not, or if the Netherlands draw and France lose.

The Netherlands will finish second if they draw and France win. If Netherlands and France both win or both draw, they will be split for first place on overall goal difference, then overall goals scored, then disciplinary points, then European Qualifiers rankings. Similarly if Netherlands and France both lose, they will be split for second and third place by the same criteria.

France will be through to the Round of 16, at least as one of the best third-placed teams, if Albania do not beat Spain in Group B. France will be through to the Round of 16 (in the top two) if they avoid defeat against Poland or if Austria do not beat the Netherlands. France will win the group if they win and the Netherlands do not. If France and Netherlands both win or both draw they will be split for first and second place by the above criteria, similarly for second and third place if they both lose.

Austria will be through to the Round of 16 (in the top two) if they beat the Netherlands. Austria will win the group if they win and France do not. If Austria draw and France lose, Austria will finish third behind France on a head-to-head record.

Poland are unable to reach the Round of 16 and will finish fourth.

Group E

Romania will be through to the Round of 16, in the top two, if they avoid defeat by Slovakia. Romania will win the group if they win and Belgium do not beat Ukraine. Romania will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose and Ukraine avoid defeat.

Belgium will be through to the Round of 16, in the top two, if they avoid defeat by Ukraine. Belgium will win the group if they win and Slovakia do not beat Romania. Belgium will be unable to reach the Round of 16 if they lose and Romania avoid defeat.

Slovakia will be through to the Round of 16, in the top two, if they beat Romania. Slovakia will finish third if they draw. Slovakia will finish first if they win and Ukraine do not beat Belgium. Slovakia will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose and Belgium avoid defeat.

Ukraine will be through to the Round of 16, in the top two, if they beat Belgium. Ukraine will finish first if they win and Romania do not beat Slovakia. Ukraine will finish third if they draw and the other game is not drawn. Ukraine will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose and Slovakia avoid defeat.

If both games are drawn, the four teams will finish equal on four points and a lot of permutations will come into play.

Group F

Portugal are through to the round of 16 as group winners.

Türkiye will be through to the round of 16, as group runners-up, if they avoid defeat against Czechia. Türkiye will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose and Georgia beat Portugal.

Czechia will be through to the round of 16, as group runners-up, if they beat Türkiye and Georgia do not beat Portugal. If Czechia and Georgia both win, they will be split for second and third place on overall goal difference, then overall goals scored, then disciplinary points, then European Qualifiers rankings. Czechia will finish third if they draw and Georgia do not win. Czechia will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose.

Georgia will be through to the round of 16, as group runners-up, if they beat Portugal and Czechia beat Türkiye, provided Georgia finish ahead of Czechia on the criteria described above. Georgia will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose, or if they draw and Czechia avoid defeat.