2024 may test EPS’s political acumen

CHENNAI: Edappadi K Palaniswami is all set to face new challenges in 2024 after winning the battle of perception by organising a massive conference at Madurai and general council meeting at the fag end of 2023 to declare that he is “the leader” of the AIADMK.

The Supreme Court, on February 23, 2023, upheld the Madras High Court verdict, validating the AIADMK general council meeting held on July 11, 2022. This in turn affected the resolutions passed in the meeting to annul Palaniswami as interim general secretary, besides expulsion of coordinator of the party O Panneerselvam and his supporters. The Apex court verdict gave a breather for the Salem strongman to consolidate his position, but there is a long way to go and innumerable legal battles ahead to settle the issue once for all.

At present, Palaniswami has a lot on his plate that would test his political acumen. It starts from forming a formidable alliance to take on the DMK front in the Lok Sabha polls to retaining its vote share and returning to winning streak.

The AIADMK under Palaniswami would likely face the LS polls without a Prime Minister candidate after it ended its electoral ties with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). On September 25, 2023, the AIADMK passed a resolution to end its ties with the BJP and exited the NDA. It was the outcome of repeated demands from senior leaders and party cadre to arrest the declining popularity of the party among minorities and do away with the tag ‘servitude’ to the BJP.

The decision was taken with much anticipation that it would attract some of the key allies from the DMK-led front. However, there was no sign of it, leaving the senior and second rung leaders of the party in a state of bother. Even smaller allies - GK Vasan’s TMC (M), K Krishnasamy’s Puthiya Thamilagam and AC Shanmugam’s New Justice Party - with the AIADMK-led front in the 2019 LS polls and 2021 Assembly polls prefer to wait and watch.

“The AIADMK’s attempt to reach out to the minorities to annihilate the distrust has also not paid off,” said party insiders. Not only retaining the party vote share, it’s important for the AIADMK to not lose to the BJP, which has been taking all efforts to replace its former ally as the principal opposition to the ruling DMK in the Dravidian land.

Since the RK Nagar by-polls in 2017, the AIADMK has been facing defeat. It lost 13 out of the 22 seats in the by-polls to the DMK in 2019 and it was trounced in the LS polls. The party’s performance in local body polls in 27 districts in 2019 was underwhelming, the defeat continued in the Assembly polls and the local polls in 2021.

“EPS is in a position to prove his mettle as leader and take the party to winning streak. Most importantly, we should not end up third in any constituency in the 2024 polls to restore the party’s legacy,” said a district secretary.

Moreover, the Leader of Opposition should also overcome the Kodanad heist-cum-murder and PWD tender cases, which are hanging like a sword of Damocles over him.

Corruption charges

At the same time, he has to safeguard his senior leaders and former ministers C Vijaya Baskar and R Kamaraj from the corruption cases to keep the party intact.

The Saturday meeting between Chief Minister MK Stalin and Governor RN Ravi has also rattled the AIADMK camp as the former urged the Governor for his nod to prosecute former AIADMK ministers MR Vijayabhaskar and K Kamaraj, who were facing DVAC cases. “The DMK will push for it and take action against the former ministers once they get the Governor’s nod. The ruling party will go aggressive to negate the bad impression on it following the arrest of minister V Senthilbalaji and the court verdict against K Ponmudy,” said another source in the party and noted that the DMK government would pin down the former ministers ahead of the LS polls to deflect the cases against their ministers.

“Some of the senior leaders in Western region are steering towards the saffron party and aligning according to their best interests. They are facing various cases and keeping their options open to escape the legal actions,” said another functionary.

Thevar belt challenge

Apart from this, the nemesis in the form of expelled AIADMK leader Panneerselvam, AMMK leader TTV Dhinakaran and former general secretary VK Sasikala in the election front in Thevear belt awaits Palaniswami.

“Palaniswami is an outsider in Thevar belt. Though he has a party and its symbol with him, it will not help him to win seats in Southern districts as OPS, TTV and Sasikala factors will diminish the AIADMK’s fortune here,” said a functionary in Madurai.