AIADMK divided over Palaniswami's 1% vote share rise claim

CHENNAI: In a sad state of affairs, AIADMK party men are divided over general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami's recent claims made at the general council and executive council meeting about an 'increase' in the party's vote percentage in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

While some claim it to be an attempt to deceive the members by misinterpreting data regarding the party's performance, a section of the senior leaders strongly support Palaniswami's claims about the increase in vote percentage.

Palaniswami's explanation at the GC meeting on December 15 regarding the party's vote share presents a contentious narrative. According to party insiders, it does no good for the party to correct its mistakes on the electoral front.

The AIADMK general secretary had asserted that the party's vote share had risen by 1%. However, a closer examination of the actual figures reveals a different story. Though the results of the LS polls have limited bearing on the State Assembly elections, which are just 14 months away, they cannot be entirely dismissed as insignificant.

Insiders indicate that the party is failing in certain aspects of its electoral strategy.

In the 2019 polls, the party garnered 83,07,345 votes, accounting for 19.39% of the total votes cast, after contesting in 22 constituencies.

In the subsequent election, despite contesting an additional 12 constituencies, the party secured only 89,37,836 votes, which accounts for 20.46%—a modest 1.07% increase in the total vote share. The party secured an average of 3.78 lakh votes in each contested constituency in 2019, whereas it secured an average of 2.63 lakh votes per constituency in 2024. Party men are worried over the slide in average votes per constituency.

Based on these statistics, the AIADMK should have secured over 1.28 crore votes in the April 19 polls to surpass its 2019 performance, if Palaniswami's claim is to be considered right. Moreover, the AIADMK leader did not apply the same formula to evaluate the performance of their former ally, BJP. He compared the saffron party's performance in the 2019 and 2024 parliamentary elections, noting that it contested seven seats in 2014 and secured 5.56% of the votes. However, in this year's election, the BJP contested 20 seats and garnered only 11.24%. He argued that to replicate its 2014 performance, the BJP should have secured 13.11%, suggesting that the BJP's vote share had declined. "He should have avoided taking up the election results and vote percentage analysis in the meeting. It is like scoring a own goal," said a former MLA. Using different yardsticks to analyse the election performance of AIADMK and BJP has exposed the party chief, insiders lament.

While Palaniswami reiterated that the party's performance in the 2024 polls was an improvement on the 2019 results, critics argue that the AIADMK leader is attempting to mislead the functionaries and cadre with a flawed theory. They claim this is not the right approach, especially with the 2026 assembly elections looming.

"He tried to boost the morale of the functionaries and cadre by suggesting that the party's vote share had increased compared to the previous elections. But this is a false statement," said a senior leader, who shared the dais with Palaniswami at the GC meeting.

Instead of misguiding the cadre and functionaries, Palaniswami should have "admitted to the facts" and identified the party's weaknesses ahead of the crucial Assembly polls in 2026, said a former minister, who preferred to remain anonymous. Several other senior leaders and functionaries who attended the GC meeting echoed this sentiment.

However, a section of the senior leaders and members of the resolution committee, such as Semmalai, defended Palaniswami's assertions, citing the data from the Election Commission of India. "We secured more than 6 lakh votes than the 2019 elections. But many are attempting to discredit our performance in order to weaken AIADMK. We will prove ourselves in the 2026 Assembly polls," he said.

Political commentators Priyan and Durai Karuna have similarly suggested that Palaniswami is attempting to 'fool' the party's cadre and functionaries by offering a misleading interpretation.

Flawed Logic?

Palaniswami is hiding a slide in per constituency vote percentage, claim party sources

2014

39 Seats contested by AIADMK

1.80 cr votes secured

44.92% votes garnered out of total votes polled

37 Seats won

2019

22 Seats contested

83.07 lakh Votes secured

19.39% Votes garnered

1 Seat won

2024

34 Seats contested

89.38 lakh Votes secured

20.46% votes garnered

0 Seat won